The Macro View...and what happens

Will Obama raise taxes on the rich?
Would Romney cut spending and balance the budget?
What about the current deficit cliff-hanger that goes into place at the end of the year cutting defense spending?

There wont be tax increases. There won't be any spending cuts. There won't be any implementation of the ridiculous penalty bill now slated to explode at the end of the year.  Anything that destroys money will push the economy off a cliff.


Here is the mechanism:


1) Spending is cut (or taxes raised)
2) Therefore, less money is in the economy
3) Immediate effect: state, federal, local employees are cut
4) Fewer government goods and services are bought
5) Suppliers of goods and services cut back, go broke, lay-off their employees
6) Businesses those employees supported cut back - fewer trips to restaurant, dry cleaner, Home Depot, fewer new cars bought

7) Economy slows, sliding faster
8) Businesses make "insurance cutbacks", cutting way deeper than needed
9) Economy slides into recession/depression
10) Government receipts decline as tax receipts decline, unemployment, welfare, foodstamps increase
11) Deficits stay the same or get bigger

This cycle will continue until spending increases. Spending will increase if 1) the US spends money or or 2) the US goes to war (ie, the US spends money) or 3) magically private spending increases, ie by increasing personal debt...people HAVE to eat, for example...they will spend for that. And there are LOTS of steps after step 11....the rest of the world follows the US down the shitter since we STILL drive the world economy. For fun I will roll it out a little further...

12) US consumption decline causes collapse in oil prices
13) trade gap diminishes as US exports less
14) Exporters to the US such as China and Germany experience slowdown in economic activity
15) Europe further fucked economically by decline in tourism
16) Auto industry on verge of bankruptcy again as car sales plummet
17) Airlines on verge bankruptcy as travel declines
18) Housing industry collapses because no one is buying or building houses
19) Crime increases out of desperation
20) Railroads idle as they were in 2008 with 1000s of freight cars abandoned
21) Ports and freight yards filled with abandoned tankers, ships and freighters as they were in 2008
22) Personal bankruptcies exploding; Chapter 7 bankruptcies explode (only way to get rid of credit card and student loan debt)
23) More malls become ghost towns
24) Commercial loan failures skyrocket. High rise office towers abandoned
25) Foreign purchase of hard US assets skyrockets: China buy GM or IBM or Microsoft
26) Interest rates pushed to zero across the board in desperate attempt to spur loans and spending
27) Laws passed to force banks to lend and then forgive bad loans
28) Homelessness skyrockets, people living in tents all over America
29) Abandoned vehicles litter roadways as no one can afford insurance, excise, registration or gas, even though gas is about 2 dollars a gallon - or less
30) Environmental regulations increasingly relaxed in attempt to spur manufacturing
31) China goes into recession; Germany in recession; Spain defaults; Italy defaults, Europe in turmoil
32) Russia invades or co-erces many former satellites to rejoin resurgent Russian empire.


Is this extreme? Sure it is. This assumes there is no floor to slowed economic activity when government reduces spending. And herein lies the fear -- ask any Republican how the US got out of the Great Depression and he will say, "World War 2 pulled us out of the Depression". Republicans are CONVINCED that the war saved us. How? By "private industry" suddenly creating millions of new jobs to build tanks, planes and guns. That's the fear. If Romney wins the election and the economy goes into a tailspin, the Republicans till be sorely tempted to go to war with Iran -- because to a Republican, War Means Prosperity. On Nov 2, 2008, VP Candidate Sarah Palin said, "We're in a war with Iran, make no mistake, and when we win, we will kick that war up to full speed and end Iran in 100 days."

But Republicans forget the crucial step of war and "private industry" creating millions of jobs -- the Government is the customer and is buying all that stuff. Spending is spending whether its for bombs or for bridges. The difference is, if you spend to build a bridge, you get a bridge. If you spend to build a bomb you get a useless bomb that sits in a warehouse and has to be guarded. Republicans never seem to grasp this concept.

Make no mistake -- spending ISN'T going down. Taxes ARE NOT going up.

And look -- last week tbill yields hit record lows....everyone is throwing money at us. there is no need to cut spending dramatically. or raise taxes right now. Republicans claim that cutting spending will free up money for industrial investment, a sound economic principle. But even if that worked -- it would take a minimum of a year to START to show impact. And if Romney also follows through with cutting foodstamps, healthcare, social security, welfare and Section 8, it could be years before any positive impact is seen - years of starving children, homeless elderly and so on. And with foreigners throwing money at us, we don't need to do it right now.

I predicted the fed would implement QE3 in June, and they were oh so close but didnt. Bernanke didnt even mention it in July....I doubt he will talk about it in August unless June economic stats are bad. the govt is uneven...housing prices are the highest they have been since 2008. But earnings are slipping. Interest rates are at record lows. but no one is borrowing. and so on. If unemployment starts to go up even a little, then you will see QE3. They will throw money at the consumer. However you can't do that AND keep interest rates low forever. We are going to see big inflation from food prices this fall/winter anyway due to the drought in the midwest (non-existent global warning anyone?) and I expect a warmer than normal winter. The entire Greenland ice cover melted in 4 days last month, though to be fair this appears to be a cyclic event.

Politically, all indicators show Obama as strong favorite to win the election. The RNC and Superpac ads are overwhelming Obama something like 4 to 1 right now, and its worse in swing states. But if Romney wins -- the entire government, all 4 branches, will be in the hands of the Republicans. The US will become like Mexico. It's what they did when Bush was Pres and they will do it again --- absolute power corrupts absolutely. And Romney hasn't had an orignal thought in 20 years. He will be a puppet of the right. And the right wants war with Syria or Iran. War with Syria is a proxy war with Russia. That's one reason we aren't there now. War with Iran means the end of the US as a super-power. We will be a 3rd world nation with a huge army and nothing more, no influence, no power projection, irrelevant. If Obama wins you get two choices -- more of the last 4 years -- OR...bold initiatives that will go nowhere AND scathing rhetoric. A second term President Obama has nothing to lose. He wont have the senate or congress. But he WILL have the Executive Order that allows him to rule like a king for 4 years. At least til 2014 Congress wont have the numbers to impeach him. But he is between a rock and a hard place -- raise taxes or cut spending and send the economy into depression.

No matter what, we are going into depression or recession and we are losing power and influence. For this we can thank Bush. The war with Iraq cost us the future and propelled China to the world stage. They are the new superpower and there will be few who are going to pick the US over the Chinese. The US is nice but China is a brutal enemy with a long memory. The US forgets its friends on a regular basis. Ask Georgia after Bush swore to the living Christ he would protect them from the Russians. Yeah. Ok. It was Czechoslovakia 1968 all over again. This is a constant US pattern. And don't think I'm just condemning Bush -- Obama threw Mubarak under the bus as soon as the opportunity presented itself, despite 30 years of trust and friendship. Mubarak was a brutal despot but so what? He gave us Egypt from the Russians. We COULD have offered him refuge. But we did what Americans do -- use people and nations like our toilet paper.

Things are sliding. It's not because of our debt. On the contrary -- it's because there is not enough Keynesian activity. And as long as we carry the personal debt load we carry it will be hard, oh so hard, for us to recover. Obama knew that it would take something like the internet boom of the 90s for that to happen, and he tried to spark that by investing in Green Technology, but the Chinese undercut our prices, the Germans overrode our technology and the Republicans second guessed the strategy so that hope failed. If we DONT get something like the internet of the 90s again, then America will be a has-been nation in no time at all. Not like Greece, but more like England. Reflecting glory of the past, with flashes of power and brilliance but without the strength to impose its will unless it fires a gun.

Aurora and Gun Control

All the people from both sides screaming "gun control" or "2nd Amendment" are wrong.
The issue is not about the government taking guns away from us. I don't think that is going to happen.

The issue is basic licensing and rudimentary reporting. Gun people are terrified of a national gun ID. They think it will be used by the government to eventually hunt them down and round up their guns. So be it. No national ID.

But there SHOULD be uniform standards for gun permitting. In Florida it is easier for a convicted felon to get a gun permit than it is for a Black man to register to vote Democrat. I am not even joking..

The different standards for gun ownership are so loose that its crazy. In Arizona all you need is a license. In Mass. you need to go through a complex formula. Gun people are afraid permitting will be so the police can arbitrarily deny the permit.

It would be better if all the states had the same mechanism, one that required fingerprints, training, background check and references. There would be no approve/deny. It would be an automatic yes. But at least there would be some kind of check. It does not have to be monitored by the Federal government, they would just make the standards and hand them to the state. And it would be automatic approval unless there was a red flag.

Statistical analysis of gun sales was made illegal by George W. Bush. For example, it was discovered that something like 70 percent of all the guns used in crimes in NYC came from a single store in Altanta, Georgia. Don't you think this warrants an investigation? The Bush Administration made collection of that data and sharing it illegal. Why? Wouldn't it be helpful to know WHO is supplying the guns? That store in Atlanta is STILL supplying the guns criminals in NYC need. Bush made it impossible to investigate them.

Guns all make a signature when they shoot. Every barrel is unique. It seems only common sense to "fingerprint" the ID of every gun when it is made. Yet that is illegal. Why? Most gun crimes could be solved in minutes if this were done.

Without getting into "Fast and Furious" debate, the issue there is that an 18 year old can make alot of money going into a gun store, buy 50 AK47s and give/sell them to a guy in the parking lot. The only thing to stop him is a check box on a blue form that makes you swear you aren't a strawman buyer. Those forms are never back-checked again and the police have no authority to go to the buyer and say, "show me those 50 guns". There is no teeth to the law. The form means nothing.

It's not the buying and selling of guns that's the issue, although it is something we should discuss -- it is now legal for Americans to own the M134 Mini Gun, that shoots 5000 rounds a minute. Imagine John Holmes showing up at the theater with that strapped to his Jeep. He could have killed everyone in the theater -- shooting through the walls -- in less than a minute. But that's another issue. The issue is how we track guns and use statistics.

Some moron said that people carrying a gun are more trained and prepared than a bad guy with a knife. That is bullshit. The very vast majority of people carrying a gun in their pants or purse have absolutely no conception what they are doing. This can EASILY be proven by comparing the number of guns purchased to the number of people registered for gun training classes. Confronted by a knife wielding criminal, one who is has experience robbing people and carrying a knife, those people will almost never get their gun into action before they've been stabbed 5 times. Unless you practice, unless you train FREQUENTLY, you can't get the gun out of your purse, pull it out from behind your jacket or get it out of your under the waist holster faster than the criminal can stab you. You are going to lose. He does this all the time. You get robbed once. He's ready. You're surprised. And then -- in the event you get your Glock out and start blazing -- what are you going to do if you miss and kill some innocent person behind him? A child? Unlike TV bullets don't evaporate when they miss their target. They go for about a mile unless they hit something. And yet there is no requirement to train to own a gun.

Gun people point to all kinds of ineptness by the police and their ability to catch criminals. Yet when it comes to gun siezure the government is somehow all knowing and all powerful and evil. And the government is inept when it comes to gun crimes -- the NRA has made sure of it by tripping up every rational and reasonable mechanism a law enforcement agency would use to track a killer.

Last year 15 Americans were killed by Arab or Muslim terrorists.
31,500 Americans were killed by guns. And yet we are unable to do anything at all to reduce that number. The NRA and the gun people won't let it happen.

Round Up of Recent Events and Commentary

Whew! It's been awhile since I posted. Let's catch up on things....

Greece

So Greece elected a new government and the Germans are being cajoled into relieving some of the pressure on the Greece gov't to repay debt.

Losers!

Doesn't matter who is in charge in Greece. Greece is GONE. I have said this before and I will say it again: GREECE CANNOT RECOVER. Greece refuses to reform its taxation system and refuses to work to balance its budget. These things MUST happen. Oh and by the way, Greece MUST default. There is NO OTHER OPTION. All of the bailouts and any relief they encompass only serve to delay the inevitable. Greece is going broke. All that is happening now is the EU is blindly kicking the can down the road. Greece MUST and WILL officially default. It is absolutely inevitable. The sooner they do it, the sooner they can recover. It is VERY difficult to get statistics about the Greece budget but recently they bought a new missile frigate from France. WHY? The French love it of course, but why would this money be wasted? If you HAVE to buy a warship, there are plenty of obsolete but still serviceable warships being sold by every first world navy for a fraction of the price of the new warship. But even then, this is just an example of the blindness of the Greek government. Recently, as part of the reform of Greece taxation, the EU demanded the Greeks accept German accountants and technocrats to investigate and report on reforms. The Germans could not believe the level of corruption, mismanagement, nepotism, and so on that they found. They recommended dozens of sensible reforms. The Greeks had them arrested for espionage. There is just too much money to be made by the leaders of Greece for them to allow the tax system to work correctly. Greece is FUCKED. They are not even trying to balance their budget. Without balancing the budget there is no hope of paying off the 150 billion dollars of debt they have accrued. And yet they still want the bailout funds and to stay in the Euro. This is the most insulting and egregious affront to the world by any government since the Russians did whatever they do every week. Insane.

Here is what needs to happen. Greece defaults and says, "sorry we won't be paying back that debt." They leave the Euro. THEN THEY BALANCE THE BUDGET. They have to -- no one will give them a nickel for awhile. The economy will collapse. Perhaps they reform the taxation system even a little. And then -- they NO LONGER HAVE TO MAKE PAYMENTS! It's almost like getting free money. Instead of paying interest and principal, they have that money for servicing the country. Will there be pain?

There will be pain like you can't believe. Skyrocketing unemployment. Starving elderly. Suicides. Hopelessness. PAIN.

But it will pass. Once the shock is over, the government can re-structure within its means. They should slash defense spending such that only soldiers get paid. There would be few, if any ships in the navy that leave the pier. No tanks or maintenance. Soldiers would remain on duty because they need an army and these people would not be in the unemployment lines, but they would be relegated to walking instead of driving in trucks and so on. The air force would be slashed. And so on. There would be lots of public employees laid off. The government would have to focus on the essentials - trash collection, water works, insuring communcations and electricity, courts and jails, road repair. Nothing else matters.

But on the plus side, there would growth again. It would take five years to recover. We've seen this over and over in Latin America. Then once growth starts and they manage the budget, then they can re-apply to be in the Euro again. Perhaps they can even take on debt at reasonable levels. But without going broke there is no way they can grow.

Greece needs to go broke.

Europe

Europe is an awesome example of where the US would be if the Confederacy won the Civil War because Europe is a confederacy. In the American Confederacy, states had more power than the central government. Essentially, each state was like a country, just as Europe is. The government has little power to tax, manage the currency, manage budgets, control environmental damage and so on. Sound familiar? It's Europe. In Europe each country is refusing to give up its sovereignty. Until it does so it can never achieve the greatness of the United States. A strong Federal government is necessary to co-ordinate resources, budgets, and impose its will to impact the greater good. The EU is going to eventually collapse or suffer decades of infighting, band-aids and slow growth until they recognize this. The individual countries/states MUST NOT be allowed to run deficits at a minimum. There must be a capital (presumably its Brussels which is hilarious since Belgium is constantly on the brink of civil war) and a strong European leader. Then they can grow like crazy. Currently the main b beneficiary of a weak Europe is Russia -- and they know it. On a small scale, the current problems show the Germans were right during WW2. On a large scale, the Russians win this war again, on a much larger scale than they did in May, 1945.

Syria

HAHAHA. The Arab Spring turns out to be confusing and messy. Syria was always going to be the tough nut. The Russian proxy state and the last Russian base outside of Russia insured this would be true. The emerging Russian powerhouse is not going to let Syria slip away easily and the US cannot aid Syrian opposition openly without directly opposing Russia. Also, there is no co-ordinated opposition in Syria. Alot of the rebels are Al Qaeda and the US certainly can't help THEM. So it's a tough situation. Israel is totally alarmed because they face serious issues in Egypt for the first time since the Camp David Accords. I have thought for a long time that the answer was always Turkey. The US still has some influence in Turkey (though there is a growing resentment against the US there) and Turkey can and has confronted Syria as a result of the shooting down of a Turkish jet by the jittery Syrians. I thought for sure that this would be the entre Turkey needed to land a solid blow on Syria (on behalf of the Americans) without confronting the Russians. But that brouhaha seems to have settled down. I still have hope this will happen but who knows? Assad is finished but I predict we will see Russian combat troops in action there before this is over. And don't think for a minute that when Assad falls, the rebels will not forget the part the Russians played in this affair. When the Russians leave Syria they will be looking for another foothold in the middle east and they will be making lots of mischief there.

Book Recommendations

I just read a great book called "Why Nations Fail". An extra-ordinary compilation and study of successful and failed nations throughout history it offers a new explanation for why nations rise and fall. It needs to be book ended with Jared Diamond's "Collapse" which is itself a brilliant discourse on the steps all nations follow to their death. Diamond takes into account the devastating impact of religion and how it helped every major empire to fail while James Robinson's "Why Nations Fail" never mentions religion once. In effect, Robinson says that for nations to succeed there must be a strong central government that is controlled by voters; that innovation is allowed by protecting patents; that contracts and patent rights are enforced; that labor has the right to move freely to jobs and careers and that monopolies are punished. In addition there needs to be a concept that no man is above the law and laws need to be generally fair. The problem is that the elite in any society do everything they can to stay in power by weakening the power of labor, citizenry, laws and business. When this happens there is no incentive for original creation and no profit. It benefits a few at the expense of the many, and eventually there is either collapse or violence, inevitably poverty. This should be read by anyone who wants to see how rich people are undermining the US ability to succeed.

The Republican Manifesto

Herewith the stated beliefs of the Republican Party in America.

1)      America was founded on Christian principles of love and tolerance and Republicans reserve the right to kill or torture anyone who thinks otherwise

a.       America has the freedom of religion, except for religions Republicans don’t like

2)      Any time science contradicts religion, then it must be the science that is wrong

a.       Vaccinations cause autism

b.      HPV vaccinations for girls will only cause them to have sex

c.       HPV vaccinations should be illegal because it is ALWAYS preferable that young girls get cancer rather than have sex

d.      There is no global climate change, even though 97 percent of climate scientists believe there is and those that don’t are paid primarily by the oil and coal industry

e.      There is no evolution, the world was made by God 6000 years ago so “The Flintstones” was historically accurate – men could actually ride on dinosaurs

f.        Flouride in the water is mind control by Democrats with good teeth

g.       Stem cell research is against God’s will unless it can help a sick Republican

h.      American men never really landed on the moon – it was all staged

i.         Ghosts and witches are real but science is fake unless it supports a Republican’s position

j.        Overfishing doesn’t drive fish to extinction and any scientific research that says it does is junk science

k.       Any attempt to educate Americans to the harm of childhood obesity is creeping socialism and fascism

l.         Homosexuality is a lifestyle choice and is not genetic therefore it’s ok to ridicule fags

m.    Second hand smoke from cigarettes is harmless and in fact, is probably beneficial

n.      All funding for science that is found to contradict religion MUST be eliminated

o.      Since God said there is only life on earth we shouldn’t spend any money seeking for life anywhere else in the Universe because, ipso facto, there IS no life anywhere else

p.      We KNOW the Bible is the unerring word of God because the Bible tells us so

q.      The forced medical experiments and treatments on people against their will by the Nazis was horrible torture, but it’s acceptable to force pregnant women considering abortion to have an ultrasound wand rammed up their vagina, even if it means strapping them to the gurney.

3)      Republicans are more deserving than poor people and Democrats and should have special consideration

4)      Homosexuals should not be allowed to serve in the military and hurt unit cohesiveness and the thousands of them already fighting for America on foreign soil should be ridiculed, dishonorably discharged and not allowed to receive any benefits for their wounds or deaths

5)      Republicans are compassionate and believe they should step OVER the homeless, not ON them, because it is easier to ignore them that way.

6)      If people are poor it’s because they deserve it and should be punished for being poor. If they are punished enough, eventually they will either find ways to not be poor or they will die of starvation, and in either case, it’s a win-win.

7)      Education should always be managed by the Church to protect our youth from learning to think

a.       Any time science contradicts the Bible it MUST be the science that is wrong

b.      To prevent youth from straying from the Church we must codify religious beliefs into secular law

c.       The US was founded on Christian principles, even if there is no history to back that up and lots of documents that contradict this belief, all of which must be banned

d.      People and documents, like Thomas Jefferson and the Treaty of Tripoli, that specifically state the US was not founded on Christian principles should be marginalized or destroyed

8)      Pollution equals prosperity. There should be no restrictions on where industry should dump its waste

9)      War means jobs and jobs are more important than peace or a clean environment

10)   If a species of animal goes extinct, it’s not because of overhunting by humans but because of God’s will

a.       If we hunt or poison a plant or animal to extinction we can always pray to God for him to restore it…and if it doesn’t happen, it means God doesn’t think it’s important enough to restore therefore we should never worry about it either

11)   If a natural disaster happens, it’s not because of physics or scientific law but because God is punishing those people affected by the disaster, especially if they are in Democratic regions

a.       Republican regions affected by disasters should be bailed out immediately, but emergency relief for Democratic regions or states MUST be banned to avoid creeping socialism or to reduce the Federal deficit

12)   Telling lies is the right of Republicans; being blamed for being liars is the role of Democrats

13)   Marriage must only be between one man and one woman because the Tradition that women are the property of men must be kept sacred

a.       This rule only has one exception – and that is for Republicans in Utah where Marriage is only between one man and up to as many women or young girls as he can score

14)   Morality applies only to Democrats: Republicans are allowed cheat on their spouse, see hookers, take bribes, invade other countries and be gays getting blowjobs in restrooms but we will always scream about Democrats when they get caught. Republicans who get caught deserve compassion, understanding and rehabilitation.

15)   Women are precious and should always be protected by staying in the house and taking care of their men – the Republican Credo on Equality of the Sexes: “Make me a sammich, bitch, and shut up!”

16)   Abortion is wrong and should be illegal except in the case where it might harm the career of a Republican man, in which case the woman should be FORCED to have an abortion even if she doesn’t want it

a.        in any case, the man should NEVER have to pay a nickel  of child support for the kid and the bitch should not be allowed any public funding support -- that will teach the bitch to keep her slut legs closed even if her bastard starves.

17)   It is always better to allow the entire country to fail than to see a Democrat succeed, indeed, it is the duty of Republicans to force the country to fail rather than to let a Democrat succeed.

18)   Using taxpayer funds to support healthcare at home is rampant socialism bordering on fascism but blowing trillions on foreign wars is acceptable capitalism

19)   Republicans are never racists, and all lazy niggers, illegal spics, suspicious chinks, terrorist towel heads and cheap kikes should wise up to this fact

20)   It is the Republican goal to convince all niggers, spic, chinks and kikes to vote for our Big Tent Party, because Republicans love everyone, especially at election time

21)   All Americans are created equal but Republicans are more equal than anyone else and deserve more consideration – the Republican Credo of Equality: “After Me, You’re First!”

22)   The Army was made for poor people and Democrats. The Defense Credo of the Republicans: “Let’s you and him go fight!”

23)   Any time the media prints a story about Republicans getting caught taking bribes, getting blowjobs in restrooms, wearing diapers with hookers or calling Africa a country, it’s because of liberal bias

24)   Welfare should be abolished because it is ALWAYS better to let children, the disabled and the elderly starve to death than for us to waste taxpayer money on the few people who actually scam the system

25)   Capital punishment is necessary even if innocent people are executed because they still serve as an example of what can happen to you and that’s far more important than their innocence

26)   Any Republican politician knows far more about the economics of running the country than any economist or researcher who has spent their entire lives studying it, therefore, any time an economist contradicts a Republican, it is the economist who is wrong

27)   Welfare is a scam and all poor children, retards, crippled and elderly people should be drug tested and forced to work for any handouts that we provide out of our infinite generosity and pity and these moochers should be ridiculed at every opportunity

28)   In America, everyone gets to vote and since corporations are people, they get to vote too and their votes count more because they give us more money

a.       We MUST insure the security of voting by forcing voter ID cards on people, especially the people who are least likely to be capable of getting an ID, like the elderly, poor and black, since those people tend to vote Democrat

29)   Subsidies for farmers and farm corporations in Republican districts is a right but Social Security for the elderly is a socialist boondoggle that MUST be eliminated so that we can create more subsidies for Republican farm corporations

30)   Ronald Reagan proved that “Deficits don’t matter” except when Democrats are in office, then they are worse than the Devil and Democrats are destroying America with their evil deficits, even though 2/3s of all US debt was made by Reagan, Bush 1 and Bush 2

31)   All illegal immigrants are bad, except for those working for Republicans and working for less than minimum wage

32)   Title IX is a crime that must be reversed because no silly woman’s sport will ever be equal to a real man’s sport like Football, so why should we waste money on any woman’s sport?

a.       A Constitutional Amendment is required preventing women from EVER playing on men’s sport’s teams, to protect their femininity, their weak bodies and their hymens, which Republicans have a right to harvest at pre- and post-game booze parties

b.      Republicans are NEVER sexist because the bitches HATE that

33)   The Confederacy was all about State’s Rights, not about slavery and people and documents like “The Cornerstone Speech” that the Confederacy and Civil War were all about Slavery should be marginalized or destroyed and certainly never taught in school

34)   Political Correctness is wrong and it should ALWAYS be ok to call people wops, niggers, kikes, spics, retards, gay, faggots, lesbos, feebs and anything else we want, not only because it’s funny but because it’s what they are

35)   It is well understood that blowing trillions of dollars on any war, even one we lose, is acceptable Capitalism but spending money on the poor, healthcare or even fixing bridges and schools is unacceptable socialism or communism (unless the bridge or school being fixed is in a Republican district)

36)   The American Disability Act should be abolished because adversity builds character and those crips, feebs and blind people should just keep their hands out of my pocket and work harder to pull themselves up

37)   Blacks and other minorities caught with large quantities of drugs MUST be punished to the full extent of the law but Republicans caught taking drugs, selling drugs or with large quantities of drugs deserve the utmost compassion and as much rehab as possible, at the taxpayer’s expense

38)   It’s a proven scientific fact that God was a white man and anyone who professes otherwise or depicts God as black or a woman should be punished severely

39)   Everyone on Welfare and Foodstamps and other aid is a lazy crook stealing from the taxpayer, especially the cripples, retards, blind, feeble, elderly and children who have their hands in the pockets of every good, hardworking Republican

a.       Dog food is a perfectly healthy and cheap source of nutrition for the poor and elderly so there is no need for any kind of foodstamp program, which is just another way for people to have their hands the pocket of every Republican

40)   Republicans stand shoulder to shoulder in fervent support of Israel, even though the evil Jews killed our Lord and control all the banks and left wing media and should be gassed

41)   As Ron Paul said, sick Americans without insurance should turn to the Church for assistance. Prayer has been known to cure some problems and if it doesn’t, the Church will pray over their body.  And if they are dead, they are less of a burden on the economy.

42)   Any problem in America can be fixed by Tax Cuts for the Rich. If a tornado blows down a town in Kansas, cutting taxes for the rich will make new roads and phone poles magically emerge from the earth. If we are attacked by a foreign enemy, tax cuts for the rich will cause ships, planes and tanks to fall out of the sky to protect us

43)   A Republican’s fake medals, like those worn by George W. Bush that he never earned, are more worthy of respect than real medals earned by Democrats, like the Purple Hearts worn by John Kerry

44)   Any time a Democrat wins an election it is the result of voter fraud

45)   The Right to Bear Arms exists so that patriotic Americans can overthrow any democratically elected Democrat who might be in office

a.       The Second Amendment allows all Americans, including children, to own quad 37 millimeter anti-aircraft guns, and even ballistic missiles and the sooner we are all so armed the safer we will all be

b.      It is better to allow children in school to be armed and create free-fire zones in the event of a Columbine-like incident than it is to outlaw guns in school. The same is true for the workplace, churches, supermarkets and day-care centers.

46)   It is necessary to force school children to say the Pledge of Allegiance at school even though it conflicts with the Constitution, forces them to pray to a God they might not believe in and requires them to enter into an illegal, binding moral contract that they may neither understand nor believe in

a.       It’s necessary to force children to pray in school to a Christian god they may or may not believe in because the churches are failing and we have to help the churches brainwash children into blindly accepting Jesus Christ as their Savior without doing any critical thinking

47)   It’s totally acceptable for Fox News to sue the FCC to protect their explicit right to lie and deceive their viewers but news outlets that attempt to tell the truth are all filled with liberal bias

48)   Freedom of Speech is the first and most important of the Amendments except where that speech interferes with Republicans getting their way

a.       Flag burners should be jailed immediately because burning the flag is “different” than other speech

b.      Any institution that tells the actual truth about Republican actions is automatically guilty of “liberal bias”

c.       It is ok for Republican news outlets to lie or make up stories that make Democrats look bad because that is free speech, but any Democrats who do that should be punished for libel

Another Step Towards the Trainwreck

What did people expect, really? Of COURSE Hollande was going to be elected in France. Of COURSE the Greeks were going to throw off the yoke of austerity. Austerity SUCKS. Whooping it up on the credit card is much more fun and we'll just suffer later when the bill comes due. I've always likened the current situation to someone on heroin. Austerity is going straight...credit is the heroin. The politicians who pander to the drug-thirsty are the pushers. They don't care that the ship is going down -- they just want to be Captain and enjoy the good life as it sinks. They don't even care that they are part of the problem...no matter what happens, they aren't going to be affected, experience a minute of privation or desperation or hunger or loss.

So it only makes sense that the morons in France and Greece took the easy road. On the other hand, I've said all along that what Greece needs is to default. Now it appears certain that they will, officially. Unofficially they've been in default forever. Everyone recognizes it, they just studiously pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Will France default also? Will the Euro break down? What will happen?

Well it seems likely that the smaller desperate countries will default and pull out of the Euro...Greece certainly will, and who wants them anyway -- they were corrupt mis-managers from the beginning. And they got a free airport, Olympic stadium, a giant tunnel, a nice bridge and lots of swell improvements to the Acropolis FOR FREE! Not just for free, but they got the Germans to pay for them! And now that the Germans want their money back the Greeks are saying, "Fuck you and the Panzer you rode in on!" You see, the Germans can't take back that bridge or tunnel or airport or stadium. They don't have alot of leverage and it's not like Greece is the most trustworthy country in the EU...in fact, they are probably among the scummiest crooks in Government in all of Europe. They'll default and laugh all the way to the bank -- whatever bank will still survive.

And it will be a great experiment to watch the fun. Greece defaults. Their banking system collapses. Germany has to bail out its banks. It's the end of EU bailouts. More European countries default, like Portugal and Spain. Greece goes back to the Drachma...they still have a budget way out of whack but no one lends them money. They print it like crazy. Inflation ensues. They devalue the currency -- but since they import EVERYTHING, people can't afford anything. The banking system collapses. They tie their currency to the dollar or the pound...or the ruble. Too late...unemployment increases, money flees, people flee, tourism crashes...train wreck all around.

But when you are at rock bottom -- the only place to go is UP. They will finally get growth and growth they must have. 

What about France? What's a Gallic boy to do? They can't default. With the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world, the default of France would send ripples throughout the world. And what of Germany? Will they stand idly by as their erstwhile partners betray them left and right?
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And what is the lesson for America?

If France does not leave the EU then they must show a rational plan that cuts their federal budget just less rapidly than Sarkozy. They will still have to cut government benefits, increase the work week, make vacations shorter and so on. They will just do it slower. They may even request a bailout from....Russia. The Germans are most certainly going to turn to Russia now...Russia defaulted in the 1990s, went through hell,their country is still a wreck -- but they are running huge budget surpluses. Other than Finland and China, not too many countries in the world can say that.

It's too late for Spain and Portugal. They are fucked. Last week Holland collapsed and the Germans took over the financial system. They are on the train ride to hell. Does anyone really believe anymore you can "austerity" your way to growth? Is growth going to magically appear in a nation that spends nothing on infrastructure or invests in nothing? Because as the country makes the spiral down the drain, more is spent on welfare and less on building bridges...it HAS to...as more people become unemployed, tax receipts go down and payments to the indigent go up. Since they are cutting to balance the budget, that means less for bridges, schools, airports, etc. They crumble. Since people aren't building, aren't learning, aren't travelling...WHERE DOES THE GROWTH COME FROM?

In third world nations, they would get growth from doing things no one else wanted. Africa is dotted with chemical and radiological waste dumps. They trade their health for a pitiful few growth dollars and their children play in a miasma of chemical death. Europe won't do that. But nevertheless no one has been able to answer the question, "where does the magic growth come from under an austerity plan?"

And this is the lesson for America, primarily the Republicans. Greece is NOT like America. America CANNOT go the way of Greece. Unlike Greece, America has vast stores of wealth and resources. But America COULD look like Greece does now....just by following the Republican austerity plan. The Republicans think we can cut our way to prosperity. Did Greece? If there is no spending there can be little or no growth. How could there be? By cutting our trillion dollar deficit would mean cutting millions of jobs...again the death spiral as described above. The Republicans think they can cut that off at the pass by eliminating foodstamps and welfare. I can just see how that places in the poverty stricken South - 30 million starving American children on worldwide television.

For Europe, the long term solution is still Federalism. There must be a strong central government that controls monetary policy and the member states must not be allowed to run budget deficits - EVER. The Masstricht Treaty allows deficits of 2 - 3 percent per year but that assumes independent nations still have sovereign control of their currency, as if only the name "franc" changed to "euro". This is a fallacy. It MUST be more like the US where states are required to balance their budgets. Yes it will hurt alot and there will be depression. But once the money is fixed, everything else should follow...eventually.

The bigger question is what the Russians and Chinese will be doing in the meantime. I am sure they are looking at all of this with great glee.

On the Eve of the Titanic's Sinking

Chief Engineer Joseph Bell stood in front of his men, his hands on the gleaming brass handrails. He was dressed in his best blue woolen uniform, but his tie was askew and his face was ashen. The sound of the dynamos was loud, and Bell was a soft-spoken man, but his voice carried to each of the men in the chamber.

"My boys," he said, "the situation is grim. In fact I must tell you that there is no hope."

To underscore the situation, the floor tilted noticeably further and there was the sound of iron rivets popping loose, the sound was like gunfire. The men didn't flinch at the noise and hung on Bell's every word.

"There are not enough life boats for all the passengers," Bell continued, his lower lip trembling. Bell was a hard man and no one had seen him laid so low.

"The hope and lives of everyone aboard this vessel depend on the Marconi machine. The operators are working now to raise the nearest ship to come to our aid."

"Is there a ship?," Dillinger asked hopefully. The men leaned forward. Someone dropped a shovel and it clattered to the deck.

"It is my understanding the nearest ship is four hours away," Bell responded. A steam valve popped and the sound of hissing steam added to the creaks and groans of the settling ship.

"The ship shant swim that long," Bell trailed off.

"But the rescuers will need our lights to find the ship," Arvin called in, "in addition to the work of the wireless."

"It's what I have come to ask," Bell said softly, "and I cannot do it. You know what it means. The water is 40 degrees Fahrenheight..."

"Forty degrees!" someone exclaimed, "not a man will last an hour in that sea."

"Half that," Bell said. He looked around at each of them. They gripped their tools and looked back at him. The lights flickered and dimmed. One of the boilermen grabbed a series of valves and re-directed the diminishing steam pressure to the dynamos. The lights flared brightly.

"You can count on us," someone called to Bell.

"All of us," someone else replied.

Bell turned his back on them so they would not see his tears. The angle of the deck rose sharply. The entire ship groaned as the stern fought the pull of gravity and grip of the icy sea. The men looked at the ceiling girders. Everything was new and trim, manufactured by expert craftsmen of the best materials money could buy and designed to last a hundred years under the harshest of sea-going conditions. But every single man knew what was going to happen when that 15,000 ton stern lifted out of the water. Nothing made by men could resist the inevitable.

The lights flickered again and there was a signal lamp on the annunciator flashing from the Flying Bridge. Bell knew then that the forward bridge must be now under water. He picked up the sound phone. A voice called down from above.

"This is Murdoch," the voice cried breathlessly, "Is anyone there?"

"All here and ready, sir," Bell called proudly, loudly enough for every man to hear.

"We've lost power to the Bridge. We've got to keep the Radio Room getting electricity. Can you help us? It's our only hope!"

"Of course," Bell said, as it if it were a trifle, "It will be addressed at once."

The men sprang to action. They had no way of knowing if anyone was still in the Boiler Room firing the engines. They had no idea how much steam pressure was left to turn the dynamos or how long it would be sufficient to run the lights and machinery.

"Number one pump is down!," someone called and men sprang to do what they could.

"Fifty amps on the number two dynamo! Make 2500 revolutions!" someone called. Men jumped to the polished brass valves on the control panel.

Dillinger looked at the massive Hampton clock in the center of the panel. It was 1:59 AM. He pulled open his collar and ran to the electrical panel. All of the breakers servicing the forward part of the ship were open. Others started snapping open as water filled the normally-watertight junction boxes throughout the forward spaces of the ship. He grabbed the levers and forced them home. Some stayed in place, others blew instantly, showering him with sparks.

The men could now hear the screams of terror of the passengers from above. Dillinger was too busy to think of his own impending death but another jerk of the ship as it lifted out of the water brought him back to reality and he fought the lump in his throat. Was this really it? Was this how his life was to end? He looked around. Despite the crazy angle of the deck, the room was spotless. The tools were lined up in their cages. The gauges and valves were new and working flawlessly. The temperature was warm, the air dry. The lights burned brightly. How could this be the end? How?

The increasing angle of floor was apparent not only to the men but also to the ship which was now struggling past its design limit. The men could see the girders flexing and crimping. Rigid piping that was never designed for this kind of stress began to bend with a sickening scream. Flanges began to blow rivets and white hot steam blasted from the leaks.

"Live steam!" someone shouted and men shrank from the growing cloud. They knew live steam under pressure was invisible and would sever a limb cleaner than any blade. Dillinger couldn't help but look at the iron staircase and ladders leading to the catwalk and the escape doors. The sound of the steam filling the room was so loud that no one could talk. A man was down on the floor holding his belly. Dillinger couldn't tell what had happened to him. The angle increased yet again. There was the grinding sound of metal plates tearing at their seams. Dillinger worked frantically to force the knife switch breakers back into place. He could smell burning flesh coming from the area of Dynamo Number One. Someone must be dead or badly hurt, electrocuted trying to force the main breakers closed. Each time a breaker blew there was the cracking sound of electricity. The men trying to repair the steam flange gave up. He could see a pile up of bodies below the pipe. A white pipe next to it snapped and ice cold water blasted from the broken steel. Men yelled and pointed at the ceiling. The plates were starting to separate. Insulation, wiring and bits of paint and steel poured through the growing cracks into the room. Dillinger was shaking with fear. He saw Bell on the platform spinning valves to shut down Dynamo One and redirect all the remaining steam pressure to Dynamo Two. Dynamo One was out! Half the ship was without power! Dillinger knew at once the Radio Room was finished now. But it was critical to keep the lights blazing. How else would the rescue ships see them in the black night? He threw himself at the snapping breakers, checking the extremely dangerous main switch to make sure it was still sound -- miraculously it held!

The ship shifted again, the stern not just tilting up, but slewing forward as it slid under the water. There was a huge banging sound as the steel pipes of the catwalks snapped, the catwalks crashing down onto the huge dynamo, dragging pipes and wires and lights down with it. Men were screaming now, louder than the hissing steam, above the sound of ripping iron and snapping pipes. The lights flickered, many failed but a few survived, keeping the room lit but filled with shadows. The survivors continued their desperate work, some of them sobbing in terror and frustration. They had to cling to their work stations now, walking upright was impossible. Men were praying to God loudly. Bell was standing alone at the control station, gripping the main steam valve to remain upright, looking downward into the Dynamo Room. It would not be long now. The Hampton still ticked. It was 2:08 AM.

Dillinger heard another sound now and looked downward in horror as water swirled up from the forward bulkhead. He looked up to see water pouring down from the far ceiling and rapidly filling the Dynamo Room, gurgling and splashing as the bilge pumps struggled to clear it. Water and electricity was the terror of every seagoing electrician. The breakers continued to snap. Dillinger pushed them in and they blew again at once.

"Steam pressure's falling fast!" Someone yelled. They could all hear the dynamos spinning down as the steam fell. There was a loud crack as the ship split and fell a few feet towards the ocean. There was nothing more they could do. Without steam to turn the dynamos they could not make electricity. An electrician was working frantically at the battery panel redirecting the remaining power to the most critical functions -- but what was critical now? The bridge was under water...could they keep the navigation lights burning? Did they need to power the anchor motors anymore? What about the corridor morse lamps, surely they were top priority? Dillinger didn't know what to do anymore. The man at the battery stepped into the growing lake around him and suddenly started shaking...electrocuted by the powerful batteries!

The room was filling with clouds of steam now and water was up to the catwalks. Dillinger climbed to the control platform where Bell watched in horror. The ceiling split completely. The lights went out.

Dillinger and Bell grabbed each other in the dark. Things moved quicker now. The pitch of all the sounds combined and rose and it sounded to Dillinger like a steam train heading for them at top speed. There was nowhere to go. Dillinger jammed his foot into the rail. The only lights came from red emergency morse lamps still working throughout the room, powered by batteries. The sound of water rushing into the room filled Dillinger's ears and drowned out every other sound. He could smell the salt of the sea and feel the rush of the cold night air. It would not be long now. The ship was breaking in half and plunging towards the ocean. In the dim red glow Dillinger could see the hands of the Hampton clock click over to 2:17. Then there was a crash as the stern slammed back into the ocean. A pipe crashed from the ceiling and crushed Chief Engineer Bell. On it's way down it dragged Bell's body into the rising water. Dillinger couldn't see Bell sink but he felt the icy water climbing up his legs fast. It would only be a few more seconds. The screams of the passengers above him reached a fever pitch. Tools and pipes and all kinds of material spilled from above all around him. Dillinger saw the battery gauges glowing in the dark and realized they still had power, lots of power. He grabbed a breaker with his left hand, covering the copper with his open palm. Then with his other hand...he closed the circuit. A few remaining lights flared back on as Dillinger's body arced, then failed again and Dillinger's smoking body fell into the cold water. A few seconds later the marvelous Hampton clock passed under the water and stopped. It was 2:18AM.

Should We Bomb Iran

"Iran's WMD is the impact a war would have on the world economy once Iran is attacked."
- Barry Ritholz, "The Big Picture"

There must be something in the drinking water in this country that makes people stupid. Seriously. The only reason we seem to like war so much MUST be because of something in the drinking water. In actuality, I think Americans like war because it's always "over there". They don't see the real horror. Other than 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombings, America has been extremely lucky about war. As a result, it seems more like "entertainment" to most Americans than what it is.

That being said, we now have the Republican candidates criticizing Barack Obama for not being tough enough on Iran and their nuclear program. They would "take action". They are beating the war drums. George Bush didn't do a thing about the Iran program -- he was too busy losing the Iraq war. He didn't do a thing about North Korea either, and they actually exploded a lame bomb. So why are they beating their war drums? Political expediency, of course. They are trying to create a new reality show for the morons, I mean their constituents, who like this sort of thing.

On the other hand, there is a real situation with Iran that has to be monitored. The first question is, Is Iran really building a nuclear weapon? The answer is almost certainly yes. We know this because of the method of enrichment they are implementing. It's not used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. It's used to enrich weapons grade materials. Therefore, the conclusion MUST be that they are building a nuclear weapon.

The next important question is, Why are they building a nuclear weapon? If you ask the Republicans it's because they are madmen and terrorists, Islamic extremists and so on. But the answer is much, much simpler. They are building a nuclear weapon to keep from being attacked by the West. Note that no nation that acquires a nuclear weapon has ever been invaded or attacked. The Iranians are not madmen. They saw what happened to Iraq, and they know they were next. If the Republicans win in November, they know they ARE next. Even the Israelis acknowledge that there is a point after which they can no longer safely attack Iran. This point ultimately is when Iran tests its first device...because then they probably have multiple devices and those could be deployed in any number of ways. Notice also that many countries around  Iran have nukes -- Pakistan, their unstable next door neighbor: Israel, their other unstable next door neighbor. What reason can the world give for NOT allowing them to have a nuclear weapon? They are certainly in far better shape than Pakistan.

So we've established they are building a bomb and seem to have rational reasons to do it. We've taken the position that we have to do something about it -- but what? Is war the answer? What does "war" mean in this context?

First of all, one thing no one is talking about is how much a war with Iran would cost. The Iraq war cost us about $1 trillion directly. How much would a war with Iran cost? What would be the objectives? What does victory look like? What's the exit strategy.

I imagine the objective would be to end or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program; it would be accomplished by bombing several Iranian nuclear sites; it would require action to keep the Straits of Hormuz open; it require a close-ended campaign and would have a definite end scale, regardless of accomplishment. That being said, the BEST CASE scenario, based on rapidity of the US advance in the Iraq war, is that the attack would cost a minimum of $50 Billion dollars. That does not include the economic impact of the war, the run up in the price of gas and oil and so on.

Many other commentators have already stated that the 100 or so planes the Israelis could bring to bear would not be enough to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear sites. Therefore, heavy US bombers, such as the B2 and the B52 would be needed. If air superiority could be achieved, the Israelis could modify C130 type cargo planes to drop bigger munitions but the risks are huge. So assuming the US involves its bomber fleet, it would mean flying from Guam, England and Germany at a minimum and possibly Italy, Spain and Turkey. Rumors state the Israelis are entering into agreements with Cyprus and Azerbajan to use their airfields and airspace.

It's important to discuss the Straits of Hormuz here. The straits are about 30 miles across, but ships can only pass through about a mile of it, so its rather narrow. Something like 30 percent of the world's oil passes through the Straits, but not US oil. Therefore, China, India, Japan, South Korea and so on have an extremely vested interest in keeping the Straits open. There will be enormous pressure on the US to insure the Straits are  not closed once the shooting starts. This would mean the entire fighting strength of more than once carrier group to knock out Iranian naval ships, as well as command and control centers on the shore. There is absolutely no doubt that US Marines will have to be employed to capture, destroy and abandon many ground installations. There would have to be a concerted effort to neutralize Iran submarines before they damage US ships or even sink themselves in the Strait. Oil laden ships might also become targets of the Iranians. Radar and fire control sites, as well as missile launchers, and Iranian Air Force assets would have to be neutralized. The United States would be hard pressed to suppress and destroy this large number of targets in such a short time. No doubt cruise missiles and other remote assets would be involved. It would take multiple days and thousands of sorties. It would be reasonable to assume US casualties to planes, ships and men. It's likely there would also be collateral damage to tankers in the Gulf and it's highly likely that traffic in the Straits would be halted for some amount of time, whether its days or weeks depends on the determination and capabilities of the Iranians.

My assumption is that the absolute best case would indicate an attack of duration of a week. What would be the ramifications? As soon as the attack became known gold would skyrocket; US bonds would collapse; oil would skyrocket and gasoline would spike. In addition, the US debt would increase as well. Over the next week we would see diplomatic protests against the US from China and Russia, and possibly India. We would hope they would not create mischief. No doubt Iranian exports would stop for awhile, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. An additional 20 millions barrels would be halted from moving through the Straits for a period of time. This would not only cause huge price spikes but real hardship in many parts of the world...shortages, layoffs, industrial failure, unemployment, recession, debt. The longer oil failed to move the worse the impacts would be. This is the true WMD of Iran.

No doubt within hours or days of a US attack, the Mahdi Army in Iraq would revolt. It's possible the US might have to send troops back to Iraq to keep the government from falling. Much of Iraq is pro-Iranian now and it's possible Iraq would fall into all out civil war. It's likely Iran would be able to fire many of this medium range missiles, possibly hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, possibly Kurdistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the UAE. If the missiles hit oil fields or oil production facilities, the resultant loss of oil would be an even bigger hardship to the world.

It is possible that Iran could disperse its three former-Soviet submarines into the world where they could target tanker lanes, sinking tankers until they were located and destroyed. The impact of this would be more to cause the insurance rates for tankers to skyrocket, something that is passed on to the cost of each barrel of oil.

Within a couple of weeks, much of Iran's offensive capability would be destroyed. Pakistan would be in turmoil with massive Al Qaeda and Taliban sentiment. It is extremely possible that Pakistan would be engulfed in civil war or revolution, with the Al Qaeda faction winning. Under these conditions, the US would be forced to invade the nuclear dumps in Pakistan and seize their nuclear weapons. It would not do any good to bomb them because we would never be sure to have eliminated these weapons. It would be necessary to attack, invade and hold until we could account for the weapons. The fury of the Pakistan citizenry and army should not be under-estimated. They could strike back at US assets or even India. Afghanistan would likely devolve into anti-American violence.

It seems likely that Hamas would launch an all out attack on Israel. There would be 100s of rockets launched at Israel, causing massive retaliation against Hamas and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. The question would remain as to what Egypt would then do. There is already an unhappy truce between Egypt and Israel and there would most certainly be a price to be paid. What that price is, no one knows.

After a month or so, the US would have assessed the success of the raids. At this point the US would either have to renew the attacks to insure target sites have been neutralized or they would have to offer an olive branch to the Iranian government. The way Iran has its military sites would mean significant civilian casualties. This may drive the citizenry to support the government and launch a far-reaching hatred against the US, in ways that would not become clear for months or even years as retribution is taken. "Death by a thousand cuts" is not something to be dismissed lightly. Iran would have suffered many billions in damage. What would be the de-escalation process be then? Would we just wipe our hands and walk away? There is no doubt that multiple carrier groups would have to be deployed in the Straits for months after the attack.

Back at home in the US, gasoline would possibly be in the seven to eight dollars a gallon range. This would be a huge hardship to Americans. The price would take up to 125 dollars a week from American family pockets. The economy would slow down considerably. Layoffs would grow. Car sales would collapse. Import prices would grow rapidly. It would mean a serious recession. The site "Political Calculations" uses a formula that determines the impact of gasoline prices on unemployment. According to their formula, a price of $7.50 for gasoline would result in a direct unemployment rate of about 17 percent, with a total unemployment of 30 percent or more. The country would be in free fall. The resulting collapse in tax revenues combined with the cost of the war could easily add 500 billion to the deficit within the first year after the war. We could see 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars in total deficit spending within a year when you add the new deficit spending to the existing deficit spending. It would be a spiral of failure leading to a collapse of functional governance. The government would have to dissolve at least 1/2 its cabinets, with resulting layoffs and chaos within the states. The dollar would no longer be the reserve currency because it would be worthless. Eventually, no one would be lending money to the US and interest rates would look like those in Greece. On top of all this, the US would have to be on constant guard from Iranian attacks, Al Qaeda attacks and other extremism in all its forms.

The US would have to pull back from so many obligations and the hardships within the country would be those that have not been experienced since the Depression, if ever. This would open the door to rampant Chinese expansionism. In addition, its possible Europe would be in free fall, opening the door to Russian expansionism and mischief, and the US would be in no position to thwart them. It's possible the US would declare bankruptcy, but this seems radical in the first year. It's possible it would happen in Year 5, however.

Perhaps this sounds extreme, but it's not that far fetched to believe that any, if not all of these things could happen. It is extremely likely that an attack would result in a US recession or depression and the US cannot take too much more debt right now -- not without some major restructuring of how the US government does business.

In the end, the Iranians will have exploded not their nukes but their economic WMD and when they do the winners will be the Chinese and the Russians and the loser will the Europeans and the Americans. War with Iran would be suicide. Let's not do it.