Should We Bomb Iran

"Iran's WMD is the impact a war would have on the world economy once Iran is attacked."
- Barry Ritholz, "The Big Picture"

There must be something in the drinking water in this country that makes people stupid. Seriously. The only reason we seem to like war so much MUST be because of something in the drinking water. In actuality, I think Americans like war because it's always "over there". They don't see the real horror. Other than 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombings, America has been extremely lucky about war. As a result, it seems more like "entertainment" to most Americans than what it is.

That being said, we now have the Republican candidates criticizing Barack Obama for not being tough enough on Iran and their nuclear program. They would "take action". They are beating the war drums. George Bush didn't do a thing about the Iran program -- he was too busy losing the Iraq war. He didn't do a thing about North Korea either, and they actually exploded a lame bomb. So why are they beating their war drums? Political expediency, of course. They are trying to create a new reality show for the morons, I mean their constituents, who like this sort of thing.

On the other hand, there is a real situation with Iran that has to be monitored. The first question is, Is Iran really building a nuclear weapon? The answer is almost certainly yes. We know this because of the method of enrichment they are implementing. It's not used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. It's used to enrich weapons grade materials. Therefore, the conclusion MUST be that they are building a nuclear weapon.

The next important question is, Why are they building a nuclear weapon? If you ask the Republicans it's because they are madmen and terrorists, Islamic extremists and so on. But the answer is much, much simpler. They are building a nuclear weapon to keep from being attacked by the West. Note that no nation that acquires a nuclear weapon has ever been invaded or attacked. The Iranians are not madmen. They saw what happened to Iraq, and they know they were next. If the Republicans win in November, they know they ARE next. Even the Israelis acknowledge that there is a point after which they can no longer safely attack Iran. This point ultimately is when Iran tests its first device...because then they probably have multiple devices and those could be deployed in any number of ways. Notice also that many countries around  Iran have nukes -- Pakistan, their unstable next door neighbor: Israel, their other unstable next door neighbor. What reason can the world give for NOT allowing them to have a nuclear weapon? They are certainly in far better shape than Pakistan.

So we've established they are building a bomb and seem to have rational reasons to do it. We've taken the position that we have to do something about it -- but what? Is war the answer? What does "war" mean in this context?

First of all, one thing no one is talking about is how much a war with Iran would cost. The Iraq war cost us about $1 trillion directly. How much would a war with Iran cost? What would be the objectives? What does victory look like? What's the exit strategy.

I imagine the objective would be to end or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program; it would be accomplished by bombing several Iranian nuclear sites; it would require action to keep the Straits of Hormuz open; it require a close-ended campaign and would have a definite end scale, regardless of accomplishment. That being said, the BEST CASE scenario, based on rapidity of the US advance in the Iraq war, is that the attack would cost a minimum of $50 Billion dollars. That does not include the economic impact of the war, the run up in the price of gas and oil and so on.

Many other commentators have already stated that the 100 or so planes the Israelis could bring to bear would not be enough to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear sites. Therefore, heavy US bombers, such as the B2 and the B52 would be needed. If air superiority could be achieved, the Israelis could modify C130 type cargo planes to drop bigger munitions but the risks are huge. So assuming the US involves its bomber fleet, it would mean flying from Guam, England and Germany at a minimum and possibly Italy, Spain and Turkey. Rumors state the Israelis are entering into agreements with Cyprus and Azerbajan to use their airfields and airspace.

It's important to discuss the Straits of Hormuz here. The straits are about 30 miles across, but ships can only pass through about a mile of it, so its rather narrow. Something like 30 percent of the world's oil passes through the Straits, but not US oil. Therefore, China, India, Japan, South Korea and so on have an extremely vested interest in keeping the Straits open. There will be enormous pressure on the US to insure the Straits are  not closed once the shooting starts. This would mean the entire fighting strength of more than once carrier group to knock out Iranian naval ships, as well as command and control centers on the shore. There is absolutely no doubt that US Marines will have to be employed to capture, destroy and abandon many ground installations. There would have to be a concerted effort to neutralize Iran submarines before they damage US ships or even sink themselves in the Strait. Oil laden ships might also become targets of the Iranians. Radar and fire control sites, as well as missile launchers, and Iranian Air Force assets would have to be neutralized. The United States would be hard pressed to suppress and destroy this large number of targets in such a short time. No doubt cruise missiles and other remote assets would be involved. It would take multiple days and thousands of sorties. It would be reasonable to assume US casualties to planes, ships and men. It's likely there would also be collateral damage to tankers in the Gulf and it's highly likely that traffic in the Straits would be halted for some amount of time, whether its days or weeks depends on the determination and capabilities of the Iranians.

My assumption is that the absolute best case would indicate an attack of duration of a week. What would be the ramifications? As soon as the attack became known gold would skyrocket; US bonds would collapse; oil would skyrocket and gasoline would spike. In addition, the US debt would increase as well. Over the next week we would see diplomatic protests against the US from China and Russia, and possibly India. We would hope they would not create mischief. No doubt Iranian exports would stop for awhile, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. An additional 20 millions barrels would be halted from moving through the Straits for a period of time. This would not only cause huge price spikes but real hardship in many parts of the world...shortages, layoffs, industrial failure, unemployment, recession, debt. The longer oil failed to move the worse the impacts would be. This is the true WMD of Iran.

No doubt within hours or days of a US attack, the Mahdi Army in Iraq would revolt. It's possible the US might have to send troops back to Iraq to keep the government from falling. Much of Iraq is pro-Iranian now and it's possible Iraq would fall into all out civil war. It's likely Iran would be able to fire many of this medium range missiles, possibly hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, possibly Kurdistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the UAE. If the missiles hit oil fields or oil production facilities, the resultant loss of oil would be an even bigger hardship to the world.

It is possible that Iran could disperse its three former-Soviet submarines into the world where they could target tanker lanes, sinking tankers until they were located and destroyed. The impact of this would be more to cause the insurance rates for tankers to skyrocket, something that is passed on to the cost of each barrel of oil.

Within a couple of weeks, much of Iran's offensive capability would be destroyed. Pakistan would be in turmoil with massive Al Qaeda and Taliban sentiment. It is extremely possible that Pakistan would be engulfed in civil war or revolution, with the Al Qaeda faction winning. Under these conditions, the US would be forced to invade the nuclear dumps in Pakistan and seize their nuclear weapons. It would not do any good to bomb them because we would never be sure to have eliminated these weapons. It would be necessary to attack, invade and hold until we could account for the weapons. The fury of the Pakistan citizenry and army should not be under-estimated. They could strike back at US assets or even India. Afghanistan would likely devolve into anti-American violence.

It seems likely that Hamas would launch an all out attack on Israel. There would be 100s of rockets launched at Israel, causing massive retaliation against Hamas and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. The question would remain as to what Egypt would then do. There is already an unhappy truce between Egypt and Israel and there would most certainly be a price to be paid. What that price is, no one knows.

After a month or so, the US would have assessed the success of the raids. At this point the US would either have to renew the attacks to insure target sites have been neutralized or they would have to offer an olive branch to the Iranian government. The way Iran has its military sites would mean significant civilian casualties. This may drive the citizenry to support the government and launch a far-reaching hatred against the US, in ways that would not become clear for months or even years as retribution is taken. "Death by a thousand cuts" is not something to be dismissed lightly. Iran would have suffered many billions in damage. What would be the de-escalation process be then? Would we just wipe our hands and walk away? There is no doubt that multiple carrier groups would have to be deployed in the Straits for months after the attack.

Back at home in the US, gasoline would possibly be in the seven to eight dollars a gallon range. This would be a huge hardship to Americans. The price would take up to 125 dollars a week from American family pockets. The economy would slow down considerably. Layoffs would grow. Car sales would collapse. Import prices would grow rapidly. It would mean a serious recession. The site "Political Calculations" uses a formula that determines the impact of gasoline prices on unemployment. According to their formula, a price of $7.50 for gasoline would result in a direct unemployment rate of about 17 percent, with a total unemployment of 30 percent or more. The country would be in free fall. The resulting collapse in tax revenues combined with the cost of the war could easily add 500 billion to the deficit within the first year after the war. We could see 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars in total deficit spending within a year when you add the new deficit spending to the existing deficit spending. It would be a spiral of failure leading to a collapse of functional governance. The government would have to dissolve at least 1/2 its cabinets, with resulting layoffs and chaos within the states. The dollar would no longer be the reserve currency because it would be worthless. Eventually, no one would be lending money to the US and interest rates would look like those in Greece. On top of all this, the US would have to be on constant guard from Iranian attacks, Al Qaeda attacks and other extremism in all its forms.

The US would have to pull back from so many obligations and the hardships within the country would be those that have not been experienced since the Depression, if ever. This would open the door to rampant Chinese expansionism. In addition, its possible Europe would be in free fall, opening the door to Russian expansionism and mischief, and the US would be in no position to thwart them. It's possible the US would declare bankruptcy, but this seems radical in the first year. It's possible it would happen in Year 5, however.

Perhaps this sounds extreme, but it's not that far fetched to believe that any, if not all of these things could happen. It is extremely likely that an attack would result in a US recession or depression and the US cannot take too much more debt right now -- not without some major restructuring of how the US government does business.

In the end, the Iranians will have exploded not their nukes but their economic WMD and when they do the winners will be the Chinese and the Russians and the loser will the Europeans and the Americans. War with Iran would be suicide. Let's not do it.