Whew! It's been awhile since I posted. Let's catch up on things....
Greece
So Greece elected a new government and the Germans are being cajoled into relieving some of the pressure on the Greece gov't to repay debt.
Losers!
Doesn't matter who is in charge in Greece. Greece is GONE. I have said this before and I will say it again: GREECE CANNOT RECOVER. Greece refuses to reform its taxation system and refuses to work to balance its budget. These things MUST happen. Oh and by the way, Greece MUST default. There is NO OTHER OPTION. All of the bailouts and any relief they encompass only serve to delay the inevitable. Greece is going broke. All that is happening now is the EU is blindly kicking the can down the road. Greece MUST and WILL officially default. It is absolutely inevitable. The sooner they do it, the sooner they can recover. It is VERY difficult to get statistics about the Greece budget but recently they bought a new missile frigate from France. WHY? The French love it of course, but why would this money be wasted? If you HAVE to buy a warship, there are plenty of obsolete but still serviceable warships being sold by every first world navy for a fraction of the price of the new warship. But even then, this is just an example of the blindness of the Greek government. Recently, as part of the reform of Greece taxation, the EU demanded the Greeks accept German accountants and technocrats to investigate and report on reforms. The Germans could not believe the level of corruption, mismanagement, nepotism, and so on that they found. They recommended dozens of sensible reforms. The Greeks had them arrested for espionage. There is just too much money to be made by the leaders of Greece for them to allow the tax system to work correctly. Greece is FUCKED. They are not even trying to balance their budget. Without balancing the budget there is no hope of paying off the 150 billion dollars of debt they have accrued. And yet they still want the bailout funds and to stay in the Euro. This is the most insulting and egregious affront to the world by any government since the Russians did whatever they do every week. Insane.
Here is what needs to happen. Greece defaults and says, "sorry we won't be paying back that debt." They leave the Euro. THEN THEY BALANCE THE BUDGET. They have to -- no one will give them a nickel for awhile. The economy will collapse. Perhaps they reform the taxation system even a little. And then -- they NO LONGER HAVE TO MAKE PAYMENTS! It's almost like getting free money. Instead of paying interest and principal, they have that money for servicing the country. Will there be pain?
There will be pain like you can't believe. Skyrocketing unemployment. Starving elderly. Suicides. Hopelessness. PAIN.
But it will pass. Once the shock is over, the government can re-structure within its means. They should slash defense spending such that only soldiers get paid. There would be few, if any ships in the navy that leave the pier. No tanks or maintenance. Soldiers would remain on duty because they need an army and these people would not be in the unemployment lines, but they would be relegated to walking instead of driving in trucks and so on. The air force would be slashed. And so on. There would be lots of public employees laid off. The government would have to focus on the essentials - trash collection, water works, insuring communcations and electricity, courts and jails, road repair. Nothing else matters.
But on the plus side, there would growth again. It would take five years to recover. We've seen this over and over in Latin America. Then once growth starts and they manage the budget, then they can re-apply to be in the Euro again. Perhaps they can even take on debt at reasonable levels. But without going broke there is no way they can grow.
Greece needs to go broke.
Europe
Europe is an awesome example of where the US would be if the Confederacy won the Civil War because Europe is a confederacy. In the American Confederacy, states had more power than the central government. Essentially, each state was like a country, just as Europe is. The government has little power to tax, manage the currency, manage budgets, control environmental damage and so on. Sound familiar? It's Europe. In Europe each country is refusing to give up its sovereignty. Until it does so it can never achieve the greatness of the United States. A strong Federal government is necessary to co-ordinate resources, budgets, and impose its will to impact the greater good. The EU is going to eventually collapse or suffer decades of infighting, band-aids and slow growth until they recognize this. The individual countries/states MUST NOT be allowed to run deficits at a minimum. There must be a capital (presumably its Brussels which is hilarious since Belgium is constantly on the brink of civil war) and a strong European leader. Then they can grow like crazy. Currently the main b beneficiary of a weak Europe is Russia -- and they know it. On a small scale, the current problems show the Germans were right during WW2. On a large scale, the Russians win this war again, on a much larger scale than they did in May, 1945.
Syria
HAHAHA. The Arab Spring turns out to be confusing and messy. Syria was always going to be the tough nut. The Russian proxy state and the last Russian base outside of Russia insured this would be true. The emerging Russian powerhouse is not going to let Syria slip away easily and the US cannot aid Syrian opposition openly without directly opposing Russia. Also, there is no co-ordinated opposition in Syria. Alot of the rebels are Al Qaeda and the US certainly can't help THEM. So it's a tough situation. Israel is totally alarmed because they face serious issues in Egypt for the first time since the Camp David Accords. I have thought for a long time that the answer was always Turkey. The US still has some influence in Turkey (though there is a growing resentment against the US there) and Turkey can and has confronted Syria as a result of the shooting down of a Turkish jet by the jittery Syrians. I thought for sure that this would be the entre Turkey needed to land a solid blow on Syria (on behalf of the Americans) without confronting the Russians. But that brouhaha seems to have settled down. I still have hope this will happen but who knows? Assad is finished but I predict we will see Russian combat troops in action there before this is over. And don't think for a minute that when Assad falls, the rebels will not forget the part the Russians played in this affair. When the Russians leave Syria they will be looking for another foothold in the middle east and they will be making lots of mischief there.
Book Recommendations
I just read a great book called "Why Nations Fail". An extra-ordinary compilation and study of successful and failed nations throughout history it offers a new explanation for why nations rise and fall. It needs to be book ended with Jared Diamond's "Collapse" which is itself a brilliant discourse on the steps all nations follow to their death. Diamond takes into account the devastating impact of religion and how it helped every major empire to fail while James Robinson's "Why Nations Fail" never mentions religion once. In effect, Robinson says that for nations to succeed there must be a strong central government that is controlled by voters; that innovation is allowed by protecting patents; that contracts and patent rights are enforced; that labor has the right to move freely to jobs and careers and that monopolies are punished. In addition there needs to be a concept that no man is above the law and laws need to be generally fair. The problem is that the elite in any society do everything they can to stay in power by weakening the power of labor, citizenry, laws and business. When this happens there is no incentive for original creation and no profit. It benefits a few at the expense of the many, and eventually there is either collapse or violence, inevitably poverty. This should be read by anyone who wants to see how rich people are undermining the US ability to succeed.
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Monday, April 2, 2012
Should We Bomb Iran
"Iran's WMD is the impact a war would have on the world economy once Iran is attacked."
- Barry Ritholz, "The Big Picture"
There must be something in the drinking water in this country that makes people stupid. Seriously. The only reason we seem to like war so much MUST be because of something in the drinking water. In actuality, I think Americans like war because it's always "over there". They don't see the real horror. Other than 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombings, America has been extremely lucky about war. As a result, it seems more like "entertainment" to most Americans than what it is.
That being said, we now have the Republican candidates criticizing Barack Obama for not being tough enough on Iran and their nuclear program. They would "take action". They are beating the war drums. George Bush didn't do a thing about the Iran program -- he was too busy losing the Iraq war. He didn't do a thing about North Korea either, and they actually exploded a lame bomb. So why are they beating their war drums? Political expediency, of course. They are trying to create a new reality show for the morons, I mean their constituents, who like this sort of thing.
On the other hand, there is a real situation with Iran that has to be monitored. The first question is, Is Iran really building a nuclear weapon? The answer is almost certainly yes. We know this because of the method of enrichment they are implementing. It's not used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. It's used to enrich weapons grade materials. Therefore, the conclusion MUST be that they are building a nuclear weapon.
The next important question is, Why are they building a nuclear weapon? If you ask the Republicans it's because they are madmen and terrorists, Islamic extremists and so on. But the answer is much, much simpler. They are building a nuclear weapon to keep from being attacked by the West. Note that no nation that acquires a nuclear weapon has ever been invaded or attacked. The Iranians are not madmen. They saw what happened to Iraq, and they know they were next. If the Republicans win in November, they know they ARE next. Even the Israelis acknowledge that there is a point after which they can no longer safely attack Iran. This point ultimately is when Iran tests its first device...because then they probably have multiple devices and those could be deployed in any number of ways. Notice also that many countries around Iran have nukes -- Pakistan, their unstable next door neighbor: Israel, their other unstable next door neighbor. What reason can the world give for NOT allowing them to have a nuclear weapon? They are certainly in far better shape than Pakistan.
So we've established they are building a bomb and seem to have rational reasons to do it. We've taken the position that we have to do something about it -- but what? Is war the answer? What does "war" mean in this context?
First of all, one thing no one is talking about is how much a war with Iran would cost. The Iraq war cost us about $1 trillion directly. How much would a war with Iran cost? What would be the objectives? What does victory look like? What's the exit strategy.
I imagine the objective would be to end or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program; it would be accomplished by bombing several Iranian nuclear sites; it would require action to keep the Straits of Hormuz open; it require a close-ended campaign and would have a definite end scale, regardless of accomplishment. That being said, the BEST CASE scenario, based on rapidity of the US advance in the Iraq war, is that the attack would cost a minimum of $50 Billion dollars. That does not include the economic impact of the war, the run up in the price of gas and oil and so on.
Many other commentators have already stated that the 100 or so planes the Israelis could bring to bear would not be enough to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear sites. Therefore, heavy US bombers, such as the B2 and the B52 would be needed. If air superiority could be achieved, the Israelis could modify C130 type cargo planes to drop bigger munitions but the risks are huge. So assuming the US involves its bomber fleet, it would mean flying from Guam, England and Germany at a minimum and possibly Italy, Spain and Turkey. Rumors state the Israelis are entering into agreements with Cyprus and Azerbajan to use their airfields and airspace.
It's important to discuss the Straits of Hormuz here. The straits are about 30 miles across, but ships can only pass through about a mile of it, so its rather narrow. Something like 30 percent of the world's oil passes through the Straits, but not US oil. Therefore, China, India, Japan, South Korea and so on have an extremely vested interest in keeping the Straits open. There will be enormous pressure on the US to insure the Straits are not closed once the shooting starts. This would mean the entire fighting strength of more than once carrier group to knock out Iranian naval ships, as well as command and control centers on the shore. There is absolutely no doubt that US Marines will have to be employed to capture, destroy and abandon many ground installations. There would have to be a concerted effort to neutralize Iran submarines before they damage US ships or even sink themselves in the Strait. Oil laden ships might also become targets of the Iranians. Radar and fire control sites, as well as missile launchers, and Iranian Air Force assets would have to be neutralized. The United States would be hard pressed to suppress and destroy this large number of targets in such a short time. No doubt cruise missiles and other remote assets would be involved. It would take multiple days and thousands of sorties. It would be reasonable to assume US casualties to planes, ships and men. It's likely there would also be collateral damage to tankers in the Gulf and it's highly likely that traffic in the Straits would be halted for some amount of time, whether its days or weeks depends on the determination and capabilities of the Iranians.
My assumption is that the absolute best case would indicate an attack of duration of a week. What would be the ramifications? As soon as the attack became known gold would skyrocket; US bonds would collapse; oil would skyrocket and gasoline would spike. In addition, the US debt would increase as well. Over the next week we would see diplomatic protests against the US from China and Russia, and possibly India. We would hope they would not create mischief. No doubt Iranian exports would stop for awhile, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. An additional 20 millions barrels would be halted from moving through the Straits for a period of time. This would not only cause huge price spikes but real hardship in many parts of the world...shortages, layoffs, industrial failure, unemployment, recession, debt. The longer oil failed to move the worse the impacts would be. This is the true WMD of Iran.
No doubt within hours or days of a US attack, the Mahdi Army in Iraq would revolt. It's possible the US might have to send troops back to Iraq to keep the government from falling. Much of Iraq is pro-Iranian now and it's possible Iraq would fall into all out civil war. It's likely Iran would be able to fire many of this medium range missiles, possibly hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, possibly Kurdistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the UAE. If the missiles hit oil fields or oil production facilities, the resultant loss of oil would be an even bigger hardship to the world.
It is possible that Iran could disperse its three former-Soviet submarines into the world where they could target tanker lanes, sinking tankers until they were located and destroyed. The impact of this would be more to cause the insurance rates for tankers to skyrocket, something that is passed on to the cost of each barrel of oil.
Within a couple of weeks, much of Iran's offensive capability would be destroyed. Pakistan would be in turmoil with massive Al Qaeda and Taliban sentiment. It is extremely possible that Pakistan would be engulfed in civil war or revolution, with the Al Qaeda faction winning. Under these conditions, the US would be forced to invade the nuclear dumps in Pakistan and seize their nuclear weapons. It would not do any good to bomb them because we would never be sure to have eliminated these weapons. It would be necessary to attack, invade and hold until we could account for the weapons. The fury of the Pakistan citizenry and army should not be under-estimated. They could strike back at US assets or even India. Afghanistan would likely devolve into anti-American violence.
It seems likely that Hamas would launch an all out attack on Israel. There would be 100s of rockets launched at Israel, causing massive retaliation against Hamas and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. The question would remain as to what Egypt would then do. There is already an unhappy truce between Egypt and Israel and there would most certainly be a price to be paid. What that price is, no one knows.
After a month or so, the US would have assessed the success of the raids. At this point the US would either have to renew the attacks to insure target sites have been neutralized or they would have to offer an olive branch to the Iranian government. The way Iran has its military sites would mean significant civilian casualties. This may drive the citizenry to support the government and launch a far-reaching hatred against the US, in ways that would not become clear for months or even years as retribution is taken. "Death by a thousand cuts" is not something to be dismissed lightly. Iran would have suffered many billions in damage. What would be the de-escalation process be then? Would we just wipe our hands and walk away? There is no doubt that multiple carrier groups would have to be deployed in the Straits for months after the attack.
Back at home in the US, gasoline would possibly be in the seven to eight dollars a gallon range. This would be a huge hardship to Americans. The price would take up to 125 dollars a week from American family pockets. The economy would slow down considerably. Layoffs would grow. Car sales would collapse. Import prices would grow rapidly. It would mean a serious recession. The site "Political Calculations" uses a formula that determines the impact of gasoline prices on unemployment. According to their formula, a price of $7.50 for gasoline would result in a direct unemployment rate of about 17 percent, with a total unemployment of 30 percent or more. The country would be in free fall. The resulting collapse in tax revenues combined with the cost of the war could easily add 500 billion to the deficit within the first year after the war. We could see 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars in total deficit spending within a year when you add the new deficit spending to the existing deficit spending. It would be a spiral of failure leading to a collapse of functional governance. The government would have to dissolve at least 1/2 its cabinets, with resulting layoffs and chaos within the states. The dollar would no longer be the reserve currency because it would be worthless. Eventually, no one would be lending money to the US and interest rates would look like those in Greece. On top of all this, the US would have to be on constant guard from Iranian attacks, Al Qaeda attacks and other extremism in all its forms.
The US would have to pull back from so many obligations and the hardships within the country would be those that have not been experienced since the Depression, if ever. This would open the door to rampant Chinese expansionism. In addition, its possible Europe would be in free fall, opening the door to Russian expansionism and mischief, and the US would be in no position to thwart them. It's possible the US would declare bankruptcy, but this seems radical in the first year. It's possible it would happen in Year 5, however.
Perhaps this sounds extreme, but it's not that far fetched to believe that any, if not all of these things could happen. It is extremely likely that an attack would result in a US recession or depression and the US cannot take too much more debt right now -- not without some major restructuring of how the US government does business.
In the end, the Iranians will have exploded not their nukes but their economic WMD and when they do the winners will be the Chinese and the Russians and the loser will the Europeans and the Americans. War with Iran would be suicide. Let's not do it.
- Barry Ritholz, "The Big Picture"
There must be something in the drinking water in this country that makes people stupid. Seriously. The only reason we seem to like war so much MUST be because of something in the drinking water. In actuality, I think Americans like war because it's always "over there". They don't see the real horror. Other than 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombings, America has been extremely lucky about war. As a result, it seems more like "entertainment" to most Americans than what it is.
That being said, we now have the Republican candidates criticizing Barack Obama for not being tough enough on Iran and their nuclear program. They would "take action". They are beating the war drums. George Bush didn't do a thing about the Iran program -- he was too busy losing the Iraq war. He didn't do a thing about North Korea either, and they actually exploded a lame bomb. So why are they beating their war drums? Political expediency, of course. They are trying to create a new reality show for the morons, I mean their constituents, who like this sort of thing.
On the other hand, there is a real situation with Iran that has to be monitored. The first question is, Is Iran really building a nuclear weapon? The answer is almost certainly yes. We know this because of the method of enrichment they are implementing. It's not used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. It's used to enrich weapons grade materials. Therefore, the conclusion MUST be that they are building a nuclear weapon.
The next important question is, Why are they building a nuclear weapon? If you ask the Republicans it's because they are madmen and terrorists, Islamic extremists and so on. But the answer is much, much simpler. They are building a nuclear weapon to keep from being attacked by the West. Note that no nation that acquires a nuclear weapon has ever been invaded or attacked. The Iranians are not madmen. They saw what happened to Iraq, and they know they were next. If the Republicans win in November, they know they ARE next. Even the Israelis acknowledge that there is a point after which they can no longer safely attack Iran. This point ultimately is when Iran tests its first device...because then they probably have multiple devices and those could be deployed in any number of ways. Notice also that many countries around Iran have nukes -- Pakistan, their unstable next door neighbor: Israel, their other unstable next door neighbor. What reason can the world give for NOT allowing them to have a nuclear weapon? They are certainly in far better shape than Pakistan.
So we've established they are building a bomb and seem to have rational reasons to do it. We've taken the position that we have to do something about it -- but what? Is war the answer? What does "war" mean in this context?
First of all, one thing no one is talking about is how much a war with Iran would cost. The Iraq war cost us about $1 trillion directly. How much would a war with Iran cost? What would be the objectives? What does victory look like? What's the exit strategy.
I imagine the objective would be to end or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program; it would be accomplished by bombing several Iranian nuclear sites; it would require action to keep the Straits of Hormuz open; it require a close-ended campaign and would have a definite end scale, regardless of accomplishment. That being said, the BEST CASE scenario, based on rapidity of the US advance in the Iraq war, is that the attack would cost a minimum of $50 Billion dollars. That does not include the economic impact of the war, the run up in the price of gas and oil and so on.
Many other commentators have already stated that the 100 or so planes the Israelis could bring to bear would not be enough to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear sites. Therefore, heavy US bombers, such as the B2 and the B52 would be needed. If air superiority could be achieved, the Israelis could modify C130 type cargo planes to drop bigger munitions but the risks are huge. So assuming the US involves its bomber fleet, it would mean flying from Guam, England and Germany at a minimum and possibly Italy, Spain and Turkey. Rumors state the Israelis are entering into agreements with Cyprus and Azerbajan to use their airfields and airspace.
It's important to discuss the Straits of Hormuz here. The straits are about 30 miles across, but ships can only pass through about a mile of it, so its rather narrow. Something like 30 percent of the world's oil passes through the Straits, but not US oil. Therefore, China, India, Japan, South Korea and so on have an extremely vested interest in keeping the Straits open. There will be enormous pressure on the US to insure the Straits are not closed once the shooting starts. This would mean the entire fighting strength of more than once carrier group to knock out Iranian naval ships, as well as command and control centers on the shore. There is absolutely no doubt that US Marines will have to be employed to capture, destroy and abandon many ground installations. There would have to be a concerted effort to neutralize Iran submarines before they damage US ships or even sink themselves in the Strait. Oil laden ships might also become targets of the Iranians. Radar and fire control sites, as well as missile launchers, and Iranian Air Force assets would have to be neutralized. The United States would be hard pressed to suppress and destroy this large number of targets in such a short time. No doubt cruise missiles and other remote assets would be involved. It would take multiple days and thousands of sorties. It would be reasonable to assume US casualties to planes, ships and men. It's likely there would also be collateral damage to tankers in the Gulf and it's highly likely that traffic in the Straits would be halted for some amount of time, whether its days or weeks depends on the determination and capabilities of the Iranians.
My assumption is that the absolute best case would indicate an attack of duration of a week. What would be the ramifications? As soon as the attack became known gold would skyrocket; US bonds would collapse; oil would skyrocket and gasoline would spike. In addition, the US debt would increase as well. Over the next week we would see diplomatic protests against the US from China and Russia, and possibly India. We would hope they would not create mischief. No doubt Iranian exports would stop for awhile, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. An additional 20 millions barrels would be halted from moving through the Straits for a period of time. This would not only cause huge price spikes but real hardship in many parts of the world...shortages, layoffs, industrial failure, unemployment, recession, debt. The longer oil failed to move the worse the impacts would be. This is the true WMD of Iran.
No doubt within hours or days of a US attack, the Mahdi Army in Iraq would revolt. It's possible the US might have to send troops back to Iraq to keep the government from falling. Much of Iraq is pro-Iranian now and it's possible Iraq would fall into all out civil war. It's likely Iran would be able to fire many of this medium range missiles, possibly hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, possibly Kurdistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the UAE. If the missiles hit oil fields or oil production facilities, the resultant loss of oil would be an even bigger hardship to the world.
It is possible that Iran could disperse its three former-Soviet submarines into the world where they could target tanker lanes, sinking tankers until they were located and destroyed. The impact of this would be more to cause the insurance rates for tankers to skyrocket, something that is passed on to the cost of each barrel of oil.
Within a couple of weeks, much of Iran's offensive capability would be destroyed. Pakistan would be in turmoil with massive Al Qaeda and Taliban sentiment. It is extremely possible that Pakistan would be engulfed in civil war or revolution, with the Al Qaeda faction winning. Under these conditions, the US would be forced to invade the nuclear dumps in Pakistan and seize their nuclear weapons. It would not do any good to bomb them because we would never be sure to have eliminated these weapons. It would be necessary to attack, invade and hold until we could account for the weapons. The fury of the Pakistan citizenry and army should not be under-estimated. They could strike back at US assets or even India. Afghanistan would likely devolve into anti-American violence.
It seems likely that Hamas would launch an all out attack on Israel. There would be 100s of rockets launched at Israel, causing massive retaliation against Hamas and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. The question would remain as to what Egypt would then do. There is already an unhappy truce between Egypt and Israel and there would most certainly be a price to be paid. What that price is, no one knows.
After a month or so, the US would have assessed the success of the raids. At this point the US would either have to renew the attacks to insure target sites have been neutralized or they would have to offer an olive branch to the Iranian government. The way Iran has its military sites would mean significant civilian casualties. This may drive the citizenry to support the government and launch a far-reaching hatred against the US, in ways that would not become clear for months or even years as retribution is taken. "Death by a thousand cuts" is not something to be dismissed lightly. Iran would have suffered many billions in damage. What would be the de-escalation process be then? Would we just wipe our hands and walk away? There is no doubt that multiple carrier groups would have to be deployed in the Straits for months after the attack.
Back at home in the US, gasoline would possibly be in the seven to eight dollars a gallon range. This would be a huge hardship to Americans. The price would take up to 125 dollars a week from American family pockets. The economy would slow down considerably. Layoffs would grow. Car sales would collapse. Import prices would grow rapidly. It would mean a serious recession. The site "Political Calculations" uses a formula that determines the impact of gasoline prices on unemployment. According to their formula, a price of $7.50 for gasoline would result in a direct unemployment rate of about 17 percent, with a total unemployment of 30 percent or more. The country would be in free fall. The resulting collapse in tax revenues combined with the cost of the war could easily add 500 billion to the deficit within the first year after the war. We could see 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars in total deficit spending within a year when you add the new deficit spending to the existing deficit spending. It would be a spiral of failure leading to a collapse of functional governance. The government would have to dissolve at least 1/2 its cabinets, with resulting layoffs and chaos within the states. The dollar would no longer be the reserve currency because it would be worthless. Eventually, no one would be lending money to the US and interest rates would look like those in Greece. On top of all this, the US would have to be on constant guard from Iranian attacks, Al Qaeda attacks and other extremism in all its forms.
The US would have to pull back from so many obligations and the hardships within the country would be those that have not been experienced since the Depression, if ever. This would open the door to rampant Chinese expansionism. In addition, its possible Europe would be in free fall, opening the door to Russian expansionism and mischief, and the US would be in no position to thwart them. It's possible the US would declare bankruptcy, but this seems radical in the first year. It's possible it would happen in Year 5, however.
Perhaps this sounds extreme, but it's not that far fetched to believe that any, if not all of these things could happen. It is extremely likely that an attack would result in a US recession or depression and the US cannot take too much more debt right now -- not without some major restructuring of how the US government does business.
In the end, the Iranians will have exploded not their nukes but their economic WMD and when they do the winners will be the Chinese and the Russians and the loser will the Europeans and the Americans. War with Iran would be suicide. Let's not do it.
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