Will Obama raise taxes on the rich?
Would Romney cut spending and balance the budget?
What about the current deficit cliff-hanger that goes into place at the end of the year cutting defense spending?
There wont be tax increases. There won't be any spending cuts. There won't be any implementation of the ridiculous penalty bill now slated to explode at the end of the year. Anything that destroys money
will push the economy off a cliff.
Here is the mechanism:
1) Spending is cut (or taxes raised)
2) Therefore, less money is in the economy
3) Immediate effect: state, federal, local employees are cut
4) Fewer government goods and services are bought
5) Suppliers of goods and services cut back, go broke, lay-off their employees
6) Businesses those employees supported cut back - fewer trips to restaurant, dry cleaner, Home Depot, fewer new cars bought
7) Economy slows, sliding faster
8) Businesses make "insurance cutbacks", cutting way deeper than needed
9) Economy slides into recession/depression
10) Government receipts decline as tax receipts decline, unemployment, welfare, foodstamps increase
11) Deficits stay the same or get bigger
This cycle will continue until spending increases. Spending will increase if 1) the US spends money or or 2) the US goes to war (ie, the US spends money) or 3) magically private spending increases, ie by increasing personal debt...people HAVE to eat, for example...they will spend for that. And there are LOTS of steps after step 11....the rest of the world follows the US down the shitter since we STILL drive the world economy. For fun I will roll it out a little further...
12) US consumption decline causes collapse in oil prices
13) trade gap diminishes as US exports less
14) Exporters to the US such as China and Germany experience slowdown in economic activity
15) Europe further fucked economically by decline in tourism
16) Auto industry on verge of bankruptcy again as car sales plummet
17) Airlines on verge bankruptcy as travel declines
18) Housing industry collapses because no one is buying or building houses
19) Crime increases out of desperation
20) Railroads idle as they were in 2008 with 1000s of freight cars abandoned
21) Ports and freight yards filled with abandoned tankers, ships and freighters as they were in 2008
22) Personal bankruptcies exploding; Chapter 7 bankruptcies explode (only way to get rid of credit card and student loan debt)
23) More malls become ghost towns
24) Commercial loan failures skyrocket. High rise office towers abandoned
25) Foreign purchase of hard US assets skyrockets: China buy GM or IBM or Microsoft
26) Interest rates pushed to zero across the board in desperate attempt to spur loans and spending
27) Laws passed to force banks to lend and then forgive bad loans
28) Homelessness skyrockets, people living in tents all over America
29) Abandoned vehicles litter roadways as no one can afford insurance, excise, registration or gas, even though gas is about 2 dollars a gallon - or less
30) Environmental regulations increasingly relaxed in attempt to spur manufacturing
31) China goes into recession; Germany in recession; Spain defaults; Italy defaults, Europe in turmoil
32) Russia invades or co-erces many former satellites to rejoin resurgent Russian empire.
Is this extreme? Sure it is. This assumes there is no floor to slowed economic activity when government reduces spending. And herein lies the fear -- ask any Republican how the US got out of the Great Depression and he will say, "World War 2 pulled us out of the Depression". Republicans are CONVINCED that the war saved us. How? By "private industry" suddenly creating millions of new jobs to build tanks, planes and guns. That's the fear. If Romney wins the election and the economy goes into a tailspin, the Republicans till be sorely tempted to go to war with Iran -- because to a Republican, War Means Prosperity. On Nov 2, 2008, VP Candidate Sarah Palin said, "We're in a war with Iran, make no mistake, and when we win, we will kick that war up to full speed and end Iran in 100 days."
But Republicans forget the crucial step of war and "private industry" creating millions of jobs -- the Government is the customer and is buying all that stuff. Spending is spending whether its for bombs or for bridges. The difference is, if you spend to build a bridge, you get a bridge. If you spend to build a bomb you get a useless bomb that sits in a warehouse and has to be guarded. Republicans never seem to grasp this concept.
Make no mistake -- spending ISN'T going down. Taxes ARE NOT going up.
And look -- last week tbill yields
hit record lows....everyone is throwing money at us. there is no need to
cut spending dramatically. or raise taxes right now. Republicans claim that cutting spending will free up money for industrial investment, a sound economic principle. But even if that worked -- it would take a minimum of a year to START to show impact. And if Romney also follows through with cutting foodstamps, healthcare, social security, welfare and Section 8, it could be years before any positive impact is seen - years of starving children, homeless elderly and so on. And with foreigners throwing money at us, we don't need to do it right now.
I predicted
the fed would implement QE3 in June, and they were oh so close but didnt.
Bernanke didnt even mention it in July....I doubt he will talk about it in August unless June economic stats are bad. the govt is uneven...housing
prices are the highest they have been since 2008. But earnings are
slipping. Interest rates are at record lows. but no one is borrowing. and
so on. If unemployment starts to go up even a little, then you will see
QE3. They will throw money at the consumer. However you can't do that AND
keep interest rates low forever. We are going to see big inflation from
food prices this fall/winter anyway due to the drought in the midwest
(non-existent global warning anyone?) and I expect a warmer than normal
winter. The entire Greenland ice cover melted in 4 days last month, though to be fair this appears to be a cyclic event.
Politically, all indicators show Obama as strong favorite to win
the election. The RNC and Superpac ads are overwhelming Obama something
like 4 to 1 right now, and its worse in swing states. But if Romney wins
-- the entire government, all 4 branches, will be in the hands of the
Republicans. The US will become like Mexico. It's what they did when Bush
was Pres and they will do it again --- absolute power corrupts absolutely.
And Romney hasn't had an orignal thought in 20 years. He will be a puppet
of the right. And the right wants war with Syria or Iran. War with Syria
is a proxy war with Russia. That's one reason we aren't there now. War with
Iran means the end of the US as a super-power. We will be a 3rd world
nation with a huge army and nothing more, no influence, no power
projection, irrelevant. If Obama wins you get two choices -- more of the
last 4 years -- OR...bold initiatives that will go nowhere AND scathing
rhetoric. A second term President Obama has nothing to lose. He wont have the senate
or congress. But he WILL have the Executive Order that allows him to rule
like a king for 4 years. At least til 2014 Congress wont have the numbers
to impeach him. But he is between a rock and a hard place -- raise taxes
or cut spending and send the economy into depression.
No matter
what, we are going into depression or recession and we are losing power
and influence. For this we can thank Bush. The war with Iraq cost us the
future and propelled China to the world stage. They are the new superpower
and there will be few who are going to pick the US over the Chinese. The
US is nice but China is a brutal enemy with a long memory. The US forgets
its friends on a regular basis. Ask Georgia after Bush swore to the living
Christ he would protect them from the Russians. Yeah. Ok. It was
Czechoslovakia 1968 all over again. This is a constant US pattern. And
don't think I'm just condemning Bush -- Obama threw Mubarak under the bus
as soon as the opportunity presented itself, despite 30 years of trust and
friendship. Mubarak was a brutal despot but so what? He gave us Egypt from
the Russians. We COULD have offered him refuge. But we did what Americans
do -- use people and nations like our toilet paper.
Things are
sliding. It's not because of our debt. On the contrary -- it's because
there is not enough Keynesian activity. And as long as we carry the personal debt
load we carry it will be hard, oh so hard, for us to recover. Obama knew
that it would take something like the internet boom of the 90s for that to
happen, and he tried to spark that by investing in Green Technology, but the Chinese undercut our prices,
the Germans overrode our technology and the Republicans second guessed the
strategy so that hope failed. If we DONT get something like the internet
of the 90s again, then America will be a has-been nation in no time at
all. Not like Greece, but more like England. Reflecting glory of the past,
with flashes of power and brilliance but without the strength to impose
its will unless it fires a gun.
Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Summary of 2012 Election Predictions as of March 21, 2012
With just eight months to go to the 2012 Presidential Election the picture is becoming clearer. While anything can happen, it seems Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate and will face, of course, Barack Obama for the Presidency. Many factors will impact the result of the election, and I believe this election is pivotal for the direction of the world. I have looked around the internet for predictions of who will win. In my opinion, the absolute best indicators of who will win an election are the Irish betting sites, like Paddy's Power and Intrade and Betfair. These sites require people to put their money where their mouth is, not just a pointless guess. People who actually put up money tend to be more correct than people who guess with their heart. These sites prove to be amazingly correct. In all cases, they have Obama winning over Romney by a margin of 2 to 1.
Obviously, anything could happen. The Republicans are famous for dirty tricks and this year is no different. In 2000 Kathleen Harris put 400,000 innocent Black men on the Felon List, preventing them from voting. Statistically speaking, Gore would have crushed Bush had these men been able to vote. In 2004, Ken Blackwell, working with the White House, insured that Blacks in Ohio either couldn't find the polls, or were forced to wait for hours in the rain, or were provided broken voting machines and that polls in Black districts closed much earlier than those in White districts. Now, in 2012, the Republicans have tried to break up big electoral vote states like Pennsylvania and California (but not Texas); they are requiring voter IDs to prevent the poor, blacks and the elderly (who tend to vote Democrat) from voting and have changed poll locations and times in areas where Democrats tend to vote. Will these things impact the election? Election watchers suggest a 2 percent difference in voting results as the result of these dirty tricks. What will they do in the future? As way of disclaimer, I must admit that I am registered Republican and have been since 1980. More's the pity.
I will update this at various times as the election approaches.
Nevertheless the round-up of various election prediction sites have Obama winning in 2012 probably with 303 Electoral Votes.
Summary: Of the 22 Election Predictors polled, including betting sites, statisticians, pollsters, bizarre indicators and more, 18 of the sites predict Obama will win the election while 4 of the sites predict that Romney will win the election.
Here is the round up of the predictions and sites:
Obviously, anything could happen. The Republicans are famous for dirty tricks and this year is no different. In 2000 Kathleen Harris put 400,000 innocent Black men on the Felon List, preventing them from voting. Statistically speaking, Gore would have crushed Bush had these men been able to vote. In 2004, Ken Blackwell, working with the White House, insured that Blacks in Ohio either couldn't find the polls, or were forced to wait for hours in the rain, or were provided broken voting machines and that polls in Black districts closed much earlier than those in White districts. Now, in 2012, the Republicans have tried to break up big electoral vote states like Pennsylvania and California (but not Texas); they are requiring voter IDs to prevent the poor, blacks and the elderly (who tend to vote Democrat) from voting and have changed poll locations and times in areas where Democrats tend to vote. Will these things impact the election? Election watchers suggest a 2 percent difference in voting results as the result of these dirty tricks. What will they do in the future? As way of disclaimer, I must admit that I am registered Republican and have been since 1980. More's the pity.
I will update this at various times as the election approaches.
Nevertheless the round-up of various election prediction sites have Obama winning in 2012 probably with 303 Electoral Votes.
Summary: Of the 22 Election Predictors polled, including betting sites, statisticians, pollsters, bizarre indicators and more, 18 of the sites predict Obama will win the election while 4 of the sites predict that Romney will win the election.
Here is the round up of the predictions and sites:
1. Intrade Prediction Map
Electoral Votes: Republican 104 Democrat 292 Toss-up 142
2. Alan Lichtman Analysis
Predicts Obama to Win
3. The Signal Forecast
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/obama-poised-win-2012-election-303-electoral-votes-202543583.html
The Signal is a Yahoo News publication.
4. Newsvine
http://matt-rock.newsvine.com/_news/2011/04/06/6419002-my-early-2012-election-predictions
Predicts full Democrat sweep of Senate, Congress and White House
This is a news blog where users can write in. To be honest, the author seems totally in the bag for Democrats.
5. Larry J. Sabato
Based on Alan Lichtman’s analysis, predicts Democrats to win White House
This man is a statistician and predictor formerly associated with the Princeton Election Consortium.
6. James Zogby
Zogby is a popular polling agency. Based on the work of Alan Lichtman, Zogby predicts Obama to win White House. Typically, Zogby is in the bag for Republicans.
7. Youtube Matchup
Examines almost every scenario in a match up between Romney and Obama. Obama wins almost every time. Conclusion is that Republicans should focus on keeping the House and forget about the Presidency
8. Gallup Trial Poll
Romney beats Obama by 2 percent
9. Rasmussen Reports
Typically in the bag for Republicans, Rasmussen has Obama winning the Presidential election in 2012
10. The November 6 Rule
No incumbent has ever won re-election on elections held on Nov 6. This indicates Romney will win.
11. The 7 Percent Unemployment Rule
Only Roosevelt and Reagan have won re-election with unemployment rates higher than 7 percent. At it’s best, unemployment in November will be 7.6 percent
12. Famous Mexican Tarot Card Reader
Predicts Obama will lose the election. Does not predict who will win.
13. Nate Silver, 538.com
Nate Silver is a famous statistical prognosticator. He works at the NYT and has the well-respectedd political site 538.com. Predicts Obama’s chances for winning the 2012 election are much better than the Republicans.
14. The Superbowl Prediction
The Superbowl is a good predictor of who will win the Presidential election. If the AFC wins, then the Republican is the President. If the NFC wins, then the Democrat is the winner. The NFC won this year predicting Obama as the winner.
15. Time Magazine
Time Magazine predicts Latinos will have make the deciding factor for the election and suggest Obama has the edge
16. Annals of Improbable Research
This scientific study by two renowned mathematicians suggest Obama has a 69% probability of winning the election in 2012.
17. Paddy’s Power Betting Site
Has Obama’s odds of winning at roughly 2 to 1 with 308 Electoral Votes. Romney’s chances are handicapped at roughly 2 to 1 against him.
18. Intrade Betting Site
With about 300000 bettors participating, Intrade gives Obama a 60 percent chance of winning; Romney has a 38 percent chance of winning.
19. Election Projection Site
Gives Obama the election with 303 Electoral votes
20. Freakonomics Statistician Justin Wolfers
Justin Wolfers who crunches numbers for a living at Princeton and the U of Penn predicts Obama will win the election and the Republicans will hold the Congress and Senate.
21. Stock Market Performance
http://www.lightspeed.com/index.php?page_id=13515
Stock Market Performance in the year preceding an election is a fair predictor of the winner of the election. In this case, the Stock Market predicts Obama will win.
22. Betfair
Betfair, a popular Irish betting site, has Obama winning the election 2 to 1 versus Romney, giving Obama about a 65 percent chance and Romney about a 30 percent chance of winning.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)