Summary of 2012 Election Predictions as of March 21, 2012

With just eight months to go to the 2012 Presidential Election the picture is becoming clearer. While anything can happen, it seems Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate and will face, of course, Barack Obama for the Presidency. Many factors will impact the result of the election, and I believe this election is pivotal for the direction of the world. I have looked around the internet for predictions of who will win. In my opinion, the absolute best indicators of who will win an election are the Irish betting sites, like Paddy's Power and Intrade and Betfair. These sites require people to put their money where their mouth is, not just a pointless guess. People who actually put up money tend to be more correct than people who guess with their heart. These sites prove to be amazingly correct. In all cases, they have Obama winning over Romney by a margin of 2 to 1.

Obviously, anything could happen. The Republicans are famous for dirty tricks and this year is no different. In 2000 Kathleen Harris put 400,000 innocent Black men on the Felon List, preventing them from voting. Statistically speaking, Gore would have crushed Bush had these men been able to vote. In 2004, Ken Blackwell, working with the White House, insured that Blacks in Ohio either couldn't find the polls, or were forced to wait for hours in the rain, or were provided broken voting machines and that polls in Black districts closed much earlier than those in White districts. Now, in 2012, the Republicans have tried to break up big electoral vote states like Pennsylvania and California (but not Texas); they are requiring voter IDs to prevent the poor, blacks and the elderly (who tend to vote Democrat) from voting and have changed poll locations and times in areas where Democrats tend to vote. Will these things impact the election? Election watchers suggest a 2 percent difference in voting results as the result of these dirty tricks. What will they do in the future? As way of disclaimer, I must admit that I am registered Republican and have been since 1980. More's the pity.

I will update this at various times as the election approaches.

Nevertheless the round-up of various election prediction sites have Obama winning in 2012 probably with 303 Electoral Votes.

Summary: Of the 22 Election Predictors polled, including betting sites, statisticians, pollsters, bizarre indicators and more, 18 of the sites predict Obama will win the election while 4 of the sites predict that Romney will win the election.

Here is the round up of the predictions and sites:

1. Intrade Prediction Map

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Electoral Votes: Republican 104 Democrat 292 Toss-up 142

2. Alan Lichtman Analysis

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

Predicts Obama to Win

3. The Signal Forecast

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/obama-poised-win-2012-election-303-electoral-votes-202543583.html

The Signal is a Yahoo News publication.

4. Newsvine

http://matt-rock.newsvine.com/_news/2011/04/06/6419002-my-early-2012-election-predictions

Predicts full Democrat sweep of Senate, Congress and White House

This is a news blog where users can write in. To be honest, the author seems totally in the bag for Democrats. 

5. Larry J. Sabato

Based on Alan Lichtman’s analysis, predicts Democrats to win White House

This man is a statistician and predictor formerly associated with the Princeton Election Consortium.

6. James Zogby

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/predicting-the-presidenti_b_1191248.html

Zogby is a popular polling agency. Based on the work of Alan Lichtman, Zogby predicts Obama to win White House. Typically, Zogby is in the bag for Republicans.

7. Youtube Matchup

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GekQ3Y-qBJo

Examines almost every scenario in a match up between Romney and Obama. Obama wins almost every time. Conclusion is that Republicans should focus on keeping the House and forget about  the Presidency

8. Gallup Trial Poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Romney beats Obama by 2 percent

9. Rasmussen Reports

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_presidential_election_matchups2

Typically in the bag for Republicans, Rasmussen has Obama winning the Presidential election in 2012

10. The November 6 Rule

No incumbent has ever won re-election on elections held on Nov 6. This indicates Romney will win.

11. The 7 Percent Unemployment Rule

Only Roosevelt and Reagan have won re-election with unemployment rates higher than 7 percent. At it’s best, unemployment in November will be 7.6 percent

12. Famous Mexican Tarot Card Reader

http://zazenlife.com/2012/01/05/mexican-warlock-antonio-vasquez-predicts-obama-will-not-win-2012-election/

Predicts Obama will lose the election. Does not predict who will win.

13. Nate Silver, 538.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

Nate Silver is a famous statistical prognosticator. He works at the NYT and has the well-respectedd political site 538.com. Predicts Obama’s chances for winning the 2012 election are much better than the Republicans.

14. The Superbowl Prediction

http://standupwithpetedominick.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19968

The Superbowl is a good predictor of who will win the Presidential election. If the AFC wins, then the Republican is the President. If the NFC wins, then the Democrat is the winner. The NFC won this year predicting Obama as the winner.

15. Time Magazine

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2107497,00.html

Time Magazine predicts Latinos will have make the deciding factor for the election and suggest Obama has the edge

16. Annals of Improbable Research

http://members.verizon.net/~vze3fs8i/air/pres2012b.html

This scientific study by two renowned mathematicians suggest Obama has a 69% probability of winning the election in 2012.

17. Paddy’s Power Betting Site

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=604521

Has Obama’s odds of winning at roughly 2 to 1 with 308 Electoral Votes. Romney’s chances are handicapped at roughly 2 to 1 against him.

18. Intrade Betting Site

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#

With about 300000 bettors participating, Intrade gives Obama a 60 percent chance of winning; Romney has a 38 percent chance of winning.

19. Election Projection Site

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

Gives Obama the election with 303 Electoral votes

20. Freakonomics Statistician Justin Wolfers

http://articles.boston.com/2011-12-30/opinion/30568655_1_share-markets-intrade

Justin Wolfers who crunches numbers for a living at Princeton and the U of Penn predicts Obama will win the election and the Republicans will hold the Congress and Senate.

21. Stock Market Performance

http://www.lightspeed.com/index.php?page_id=13515

Stock Market Performance in the year preceding an election is a fair predictor of the winner of the election. In this case, the Stock Market predicts Obama will win.

22. Betfair

http://politicszone.betfair.com/zone

Betfair, a popular Irish betting site, has Obama winning the election 2 to 1 versus Romney, giving Obama about a 65 percent chance and Romney about a 30 percent chance of winning.