I have a great deal of time on my hands so I spend it looking at much of the economic pornography on the internet. Faithful readers of my column (ha!) will know that I am bearish on the economy starting late in the second quarter. Bernanke actually confirmed my suspicions yesterday when he said the slow economic growth of the recovery is insufficient to sustain job creation at the rates it's needed. He's telling us the economy is going to crash. He's signalling that Obama is going to lose his re-election bid even though Obama is the 2-to-1favorite in the election. Obama HAS to lose...the Republican Party and their interests are doing everything in their power to insure the economy fails. It's the only way the Republicans can win. For example, for the first time since 1958 the Highway Appropriations Bill is being killed by Republicans. This almost 400 Billion dollar bill is the closest thing we come to real shovel-ready stimulus and is used every year, without controversy, to maintain the nations highway infrastructure. It puts hundreds of thousands to work, not to mention the commerce it creates in resource development, transport, manufacturing and so forth. Why would this Bill suddenly become controversial for the first time in decades? Because stalling it makes unemployment higher. If unemployment is high, people will vote Republican. As for Republican interests, there is a rumor on the internet that the oil industry is rapidly raising gas prices to crash the economy. Again, a weak economy favors the Republicans. You can look at the March release of Exxon-Mobil's earnings and see they reported record profits. This gives credence to the theory that that want Obama to fail and will kill the economy to accomplish it.
In any case, this posting is not about that really, it's about sources I use to glean information. I want to provide my source data so that people don't think I am a whiny naysayer with no information to back up my conclusions. I draw my conclusions from vast pool of data. I could be wrong in them. I actually want to be wrong right now because I conclude that we're essentially fucked, that the economy is going to tank very soon and that the extreme right will as a result control all branches of government, which will be a disaster for America.
So here is a list of the sources I use:
The Baseline Scenario -- a pair of MIT economic scientists try to put a "fun" spin on their economic predictions. Their reports are long and often boring but their conclusion is that we are fucked.
The Big Picture -- Barry Ritholtz is a God...he puts together the most interesting consolidation of facts, graphs, reading materials, suggestions and conclusion of anyone on the net. He is cynical, but he's not partisan. He only cares about facts, even tiny funny ones. He's my go - to guy
Credit Writedowns - for big picture gloom and doom nothing beats Ed Harrison. This guy is on the ball. He's called it right in Greece forever. I like reading his columns but I hate how he changes his web site presentation so frequently
NBER - I am actually a subscriber to the National Bureau of Economic Research, so they email me government reports and raw data on daily basis. Most of it is too technical for me, but some of the reports come in even before or at the same time as the newspapers get the info, so I know what is coming
Case-Shiller - I've seen Shiller speak. He sucks. But he's got good data and these guys know what is happening and what is happening is that we're fucked. Their conclusion yesterday "We probably won't see housing recover in our lifetimes." Did I happen to mention that we're fucked?
Kitco - this is a gold/silver price site. They also provide "gold bug" info for nutjobs and whackjobs who stockpile gold and silver. Sometimes a broken clock is right and unfortunately so are the nutjobs. I'm not sure what gold and silver will do over the next six months because of deflation and/or Iranian war concerns, so I rarely recommend it anymore. But if you bought in the early 2000s like I did -- you're in the money!
ECRI -- economic research council. These guys are so good they scare the bejeesus out of me. Their conclusion -- we're fucked by summer. I was pleased and saddened that I came to the same conclusion before they printed their report. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ecri-global-slowdown-to-hit-by-summer/
The Economist Magazine -- this magazine takes a world-wide view of what's going on. Sometimes they are too broad, sometimes they are too technical, sometimes they think they are being witty when they are just being stupid but for the most part, you can't get a better condensation of the entire worldwide picture than from this mag. Kudos!
CarpeDiem (http://mjperry.blogspot.com) this economist focuses on good news but he also has lots of great charts and graphs.
The CIA World Factbook -- whenever something starts to heat up around the world, it's good to know the basics. Getting facts about Syria or Iran, for example, helps you understand what we would face as the result of any action we take. It's too bad George W. Bush can't read or this book might have prevented the foolish Iraq war.
Wikipedia -- that's right, Wikpedia -- for concepts, stats and global understanding, Wikipedia provides and excellent background.
Political Calculations -- it's a site for Congress and is designed to provide trendy facts and articles at your fingertips. It's totally in the tank for the Republicans and gleefully reports bad news and info that hurts the president, but the links and charts are valuable and insightful.
NPR - yes, I listen to NPR almost 7/24. I actually had to stop listening because it was becoming an obsession. But as far as news coverage -- there is almost no where else you can go to get the in-depth story. "On Pointe" might be the best news show on air anywhere and "Talk of the Nation" can not be underestimated.
Some people say, what about the WSJ? Or IBD? I do occassionally look at these sources but they are so rabidly to the right that the info they espouse is little more than propaganda. Don't forget -- Fox News sued the FCC for the right to lie to, and deceive, its viewers while delivering the "news" -- and won! They argued the First Amendment does not require them to tell the truth. This is why Fox is banned in Canada, and the WSJ is owned now by Rupert Murdoch. How can anyone trust anything it says anymore? It's too bad -- it's journalism was at one time the world standard.
So that's what I use to draw conclusions. All are welcome and encouraged to examine these sites. If you can only pic one, look at The Big Picture.
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