The Year 2035

I have been doing a great deal of reading and as a result I have discovered that the year 2035 looms large. It's only 20 years away and yet it is around this time that so much in the world will have changed from now that we would be greatly surprised is we woke up and it was that year. Here are some of the things I have learned are expected to occur around then:

- the last US WW2 veteran will have died

- the last newspaper, probably the Wall Street Journal, will be published

- there will be no more paper and stamp greeting cards

- the US Postal Service will be gone or vastly changed

- cars will drive themselves, at least most of the time

- elephants, rhinos and hippos will be extinct except possibly for a few specimens in zoos

- we will have gone to Mars, or be about to (that is, the Chinese will be going there)

- New Orleans will be largely abandoned because it will be largely underwater

- Provincetown, Massachusetts, will be an island no longer attached to the Mass.

- there will be no more paper books published, at least none in large quantities

- TV/Computers will be paper-thin and wall sized, with screens in every room

- John Roberts will be the last of the Supreme Court justices we know today still on the court

- phones will be adhesive strips attached to the skin, with special glasses or even contact lenses providing heads up display...where people look weird talking to themselves on Bluetooth today, they will look even stranger talking AND stabbing at invisible keyboards while they walk around

These are not really predictions. Predictions are guesses that are made from trends mostly based on imagination. The above things that actually will happen. It would be as if you lived in 1912 and said the following:

- horses will dwindle in number and be rarely seen

- people will travel around the world in huge aircraft, possibly zeppelins and maybe small private aircraft for the well off

- horsewhips will disappear

And so on. In those days, I think most people would not have been able to conceive of a world where horses were not everywhere. In fact, it had been theorized at the time that New York City would become bankrupt just dealing with the amount of horse manure generated in the city on a daily basis. The auto actually saved NYC from disaster. In those days, it was necessary for the city to set aside large tracts for stables and livery, for the transport of enormous quantities of hay and feed, there was a huge leather industry supporting saddles and harnesses, there were cranes to lift and remove dead horses from the street, and sweepers to pick up manure. There was a massive fleet of open air wagons just to move the manure away and the flies and stench, especially on hot days, was said to be horrific. On rainy days it was possible to become covered with filth just from splashing wagons as they went by. And when zoodemics struck, the need for vet services far exceeded supply. The city came to a standstill. Even into the 1930s my father was driving a milk truck pulled by horses through the city of Boston to make deliveries at 4AM and the city kept horse drawn fire engines in reserve until 1938.

The changes that technology made to NYC and Boston made it more livable, cleaner, less smelly and more healthy. Will the upcoming changes do the same thing?

One thing is certain -- there will be alot more people in 2035. The UN's best estimate is 8.5 billion versus 7 now. Perhaps electronics will make that more people more tolerable. Many people spend their time today in cubicles, not moving far. Perhaps that trend will continue, with people locked to their TV/Computers so they would need less room.

So with these changes, the good and the bad, what else can we expect as a result?

- less pressure on the forests as the demand for paper pulp declines
- extinction of the library as a repository of information
- increasing pressure and hostility of the elements and minerals needed for our electronics
- large increases in the price of gasoline as the population grows and supplies shrink

Even by 2035 the very vast majority of vehicles will be gasoline powered. But on the other hand, it may also be that the price of fuel drives mass transit, bicycle use and smaller vehicles

Also expected are much, much hotter summers down south. Willis Carrier made the south possible with his invention of air conditioning but perhaps it will become just too much and there will be a migration back north where it is cooler. Perhaps Canada will become a more desirable place to live as it will still maintain the temperatures most Americans remember, making life more pleasant and more comfortable for more of the year.

It's likely that if it gets too much hotter, perhaps even Las Vegas will change. If there is no water -- then there is no Las Vegas. Look at Lake Meade...already down many, many feet, it may reach the stage where it can no longer produce electricity. People WILL migrate to where there is water.

As for fish -- well, I don't think the fish are going to last too much longer. All over the world countries are fishing the oceans to extinction as fast as they can, it's a race to the bottom to see who gets there first.

In 2035 some people will live in a world of high technology and wonder. But many, many others will be living in a world of want, immobility and darkness.

A Tale of Two Presidencies

There is a headline story of a Texas county judge who declared that if Obama wins the election we should prepare for civil war. I was waiting for someone else to say it. The funny thing is -- idiots like that judge believe somehow that if Romney wins, no one from a "Blue" state should prepare for civil war. It also doesn't matter that if Obama wins it means he at least won the majority of electoral votes, if not the popular vote.

But what does happen if either side wins?

Can we say, "well if Obama wins, we've already seen what will happen over the past 4 years. We know what to expect.". Possibly. Obama is a feckless and inept leader. He is not inspirational. He has not changed much of anything. Granted, the Republican held congress has made certain that he can't accomplish much but Obama has not made use of the bully pulpit and has not used his ability to speak out at all. One might say he has been trying to mend fences, or that he didn't want to increase the division but he surely must have realized long ago that he lost that battle. He could have and should have been angrily denouncing the Republicans when they failed to pass policy. He did not. He is just not a leader.

So what would 4 more years bring? We have to assume that the Republicans are going to take the Senate. That is a big problem for Obama. He can no longer rely on Harry Reid to fend off every stupid Republican position. The Congress and the Senate in the Republican hands make for a powerful weapon to club Obama with. He will be able to rule by edict as long as he wants, but those rules last only until the next president comes in. What would he do, domestically and internationally? I believe that a man with nothing to lose can do almost anything. He could, for example, eliminate many of the pro-gun policies of the past Republican administrations and allow all kinds of recording and statistical analysis that now prevents serious gun rules from having teeth. He could, by edict, enforce stricter pollution controls. He could, for awhile, fight small wars.

Eventually the congress will try to impeach him. They will not have the power to complete the task however but they will strive to hurt him as much as possible. There will be gridlock and there will be lots of budget issues. The Democrats will only be able to use the filibuster in the Senate to slow down the Republicans. Eventually, the Republicans will vote the filibuster away.  Nevertheless, Obama still has the power of the veto, and the Republicans do not have the power to over-ride it. The result will be gridlock.

As for the economy, we are going into recession, possibly depression. It's going to be bad and this is what the Republicans want anyway, especially during a Democratic administration. Obama will not have the power to spend, and the Fed can only create so much money. And with a Republican congress, the Fed better be scared. So we will see 4 years of limping and economic pain, until 2014 when things revamp for the elections. The Republicans will be fighting to get over-ride power or the power to impeach. Obama will be struggling for the ability to maintain sanity on science, civil rights, women's rights, and the environment. It will be a hard four years until the next cycle. The most important thing will be Obama's chance to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. She's going to die of cancer soon. In any event, it will be hard for Obama to complete four years if the Republicans win more seats in Congress and can actually impeach.

As for foreign policy, it's likely someone will go to war with Iran, be it Israel or the US. I doubt it would be the US under Obama, but in the next 5 years, Iran is going to demonstrate it's nuclear weapon. That will be a disaster for Obama or any president. What do you do then? Nuke Iran? I doubt the US will do anything once Iran announces the bomb. How can you?

What about a Romney presidency? If Romney wins, it will be like 2000 again -- the Republicans will control the house, the senate, the supreme court and the Presidency. One of the first things that will happen will be that the senate will vote away the filibuster. There will be no check against the Republicans. We will see the end of the EPA as a cabinet, it will become toothless. It will be a good time for coal and oil stocks. We will see a scale down of any green technology. We will see a hard attack on civil rights, affirmative action, abortion. There will be nothing to slow down the Republican agenda. The big issues will be foreign policy and the economy. Romney has promised to be more belligerent versus Russia and could foment a war with Iran. If there is a confrontation with Iran, it will have to be early in the administration. Any kind of shooting war will cost at least 150 billion dollars -- and that's for six weeks of fighting. If that happens, the Russians and Chinese will not be sitting idle -- the Chinese get alot of oil from Iran. I also expect further antagonism towards the UN from a Romney administration. As for the economy, the Republicans will no longer put up even a token fight against raising the debt limit, and will suddenly embrace Keynesian spending. If they don't or Romney does cut the budget 500 billion dollars as he suggests he will, then we will be in an extremely deep depression in no time. Cutting 500 billion dollars would mean the end of the Education Dept, the EPA, the Dept of Energy, and consolidation of the Dept of Agriculture and Interior. Meanwhile, Romney plans to increase Defense spending. The only way he can accomplish these goals is to eliminate Medicare or Social Security or both, transforming them as he has said he would. The impact will be devastating. Meanwhile, it would mean the end of Section 8, SSI, Foodstamps, Welfare, WIC and so on. Not on paper -- they would still exist on paper, but at the end of 4 years, we would have plenty of starving children living on the street.

Neither presidency is going to be fun. With one we get gridlock, a depression and possible civil war. With another we get war, starvation and depression. It's a poor choice.

On Economic Policy and Myths: Romney vs Obama

People keep talking about debt and jobs and economy as if they have some idea of what they are talking about. They don't. They get talking points with no background from Newsmax and Fox "News" and MSNBC and Paul Krugman. These sites and people provide no context. How many times have you heard someone compare the US to Greece? Get real. Greece could fit in America's back pocket with room to spare. Their situation does not approximate ours in any way. If you want to compare yourself to a country you have to compare yourself with England, the last great superpower. They ran huge deficits for 600 years and still ruled the world until they lost their international hegemonic possessions. The US is far more like England than Greece.

How many times have you heard "we can't keep borrowing forever."? Well, guess what? We can continue to borrow for quite some time to come. You see interest rates keep falling. That's because everyone in the world is buying US bonds -- even at the lowest rates in history. As long as they do, we can borrow as much as we like. Is it smart? No. It's stupid. We need to fix our problems. But we aren't in crisis mode and things were MUCH worse debt-wise after World War 2 than they are now.

There are only a limited number of actions the US can take at the moment:

1) Cut spending
2) Raise taxes
3) Create inflation
4) Create growth
5) Default and Balance

That's it folks. And guess what? None of them is viable in the short run. We could NEVER cut spending enough to balance the budge, not realistically. We could NEVER raise taxes enough and so on.

There's an iron rule of economics that never fails -- cut spending or raise taxes and you slow the economy. Slow the economy enough and you get recession, or worse, depression.

What Romney doesn't tell you is that even if he cuts all the spending he wants, he will suffer 4 - 5 years of massive recession, perhaps depression. There is no other option under his plan. Even if his plan works in the long run, and there is no way to prove it will, we suffer HUGE misery. If you want to compare yourself to Greece, the current situation there is the right comparison under the Romney plan. They've cut spending like crazy, still haven't balanced the budget AND they are in recession. That is what Romney's plan does to us. When the US bailed out the auto industry it cost about $100 Billion and save a million jobs directly and 5 million indirectly. What do you think would happen if the US cut spending, say, $500 Billion next year? 10 million jobs lost? And then what?

On the other hand, the current Administration's plan is neither fish nor fowl -- it does not lessen the severity of the recession AND it creates more debt. It does not accomplish its goals and it makes things worse. Nevertheless, you NEVER heard ANYONE complain about passing debt to their grandchildren when WW2 debt was worse, and we paid that off in 1980. It is not a disaster. Yet.

The biggest problem isn't even government debt. It's private debt. Lazy Americans owe $900 Billion on credit cards; $1.2 Trillion on school loans, $500 Billion on autos and more than $2 trillion on mortgages. I think 1/3 of our GNP is built on credit. The government accounting office believes a quarter to a third of all income is used just to maintenance private debt. We pumped up the economy using credit cards, now when we have to pay it back, we can't unless we stop buying shit. Of COURSE the economy is going to slow down. Of COURSE jobs are going to suffer. In real terms, China passes America in REAL GNP, probably in 2008.

And the bullshit about the debt ceiling -- does anyone even know what this is? It was made during WW1 to HELP the government raise money. NOTHING anyone, Republicans OR Democrats EVER do is going to lower the debt ceiling. EVER. Even if we stopped spending completely as a government -- no army, no highways, no government employees, etc -- the debt would go up. The debt limit is a political chimera that has no applicability to real life. It is just used as a political hammer to hurt the Administration. If Romney wins the election, you will never again hear of any negative discussion about the debt ceiling and the votes will happen quick and painless as they always have.

The only way out of our current condition is strict reform and discipline. Neither of these will happen. No one is seriously going to cut Social Security -- old people vote. No Americans are seriously going to cut back on boats and second cars and Ipads. As long as they have credit cards, they will live on debt.

Eventually, we will have high interest, mega inflation, collapse of commercial loan market -- no one is going to buy a car or house at 10 percent interest. The US as a reserve currency is finished, perhaps in the next 10 years. The US as a superpower is finished.

If you want to contrast the economic policy if Obama wins vs Romney, assuming they actually implement their plans, then Obama gives us 4 more years of what we already know -- slow or no growth, debt build-up, discontent. Romney gives us Greece -- misery, unemployment and depression, at least for the first 4 years. It might fix the economy 20 years down the road. It HAS to work that way. You can't legislate away the rain, and you can't pretend the iron laws of economics don't work.The thing is Romney is never going to tell you that his plan puts 15 million people out of work and Obama is never going to tell you that things just don't get any better.

The Macro View...and what happens

Will Obama raise taxes on the rich?
Would Romney cut spending and balance the budget?
What about the current deficit cliff-hanger that goes into place at the end of the year cutting defense spending?

There wont be tax increases. There won't be any spending cuts. There won't be any implementation of the ridiculous penalty bill now slated to explode at the end of the year.  Anything that destroys money will push the economy off a cliff.


Here is the mechanism:


1) Spending is cut (or taxes raised)
2) Therefore, less money is in the economy
3) Immediate effect: state, federal, local employees are cut
4) Fewer government goods and services are bought
5) Suppliers of goods and services cut back, go broke, lay-off their employees
6) Businesses those employees supported cut back - fewer trips to restaurant, dry cleaner, Home Depot, fewer new cars bought

7) Economy slows, sliding faster
8) Businesses make "insurance cutbacks", cutting way deeper than needed
9) Economy slides into recession/depression
10) Government receipts decline as tax receipts decline, unemployment, welfare, foodstamps increase
11) Deficits stay the same or get bigger

This cycle will continue until spending increases. Spending will increase if 1) the US spends money or or 2) the US goes to war (ie, the US spends money) or 3) magically private spending increases, ie by increasing personal debt...people HAVE to eat, for example...they will spend for that. And there are LOTS of steps after step 11....the rest of the world follows the US down the shitter since we STILL drive the world economy. For fun I will roll it out a little further...

12) US consumption decline causes collapse in oil prices
13) trade gap diminishes as US exports less
14) Exporters to the US such as China and Germany experience slowdown in economic activity
15) Europe further fucked economically by decline in tourism
16) Auto industry on verge of bankruptcy again as car sales plummet
17) Airlines on verge bankruptcy as travel declines
18) Housing industry collapses because no one is buying or building houses
19) Crime increases out of desperation
20) Railroads idle as they were in 2008 with 1000s of freight cars abandoned
21) Ports and freight yards filled with abandoned tankers, ships and freighters as they were in 2008
22) Personal bankruptcies exploding; Chapter 7 bankruptcies explode (only way to get rid of credit card and student loan debt)
23) More malls become ghost towns
24) Commercial loan failures skyrocket. High rise office towers abandoned
25) Foreign purchase of hard US assets skyrockets: China buy GM or IBM or Microsoft
26) Interest rates pushed to zero across the board in desperate attempt to spur loans and spending
27) Laws passed to force banks to lend and then forgive bad loans
28) Homelessness skyrockets, people living in tents all over America
29) Abandoned vehicles litter roadways as no one can afford insurance, excise, registration or gas, even though gas is about 2 dollars a gallon - or less
30) Environmental regulations increasingly relaxed in attempt to spur manufacturing
31) China goes into recession; Germany in recession; Spain defaults; Italy defaults, Europe in turmoil
32) Russia invades or co-erces many former satellites to rejoin resurgent Russian empire.


Is this extreme? Sure it is. This assumes there is no floor to slowed economic activity when government reduces spending. And herein lies the fear -- ask any Republican how the US got out of the Great Depression and he will say, "World War 2 pulled us out of the Depression". Republicans are CONVINCED that the war saved us. How? By "private industry" suddenly creating millions of new jobs to build tanks, planes and guns. That's the fear. If Romney wins the election and the economy goes into a tailspin, the Republicans till be sorely tempted to go to war with Iran -- because to a Republican, War Means Prosperity. On Nov 2, 2008, VP Candidate Sarah Palin said, "We're in a war with Iran, make no mistake, and when we win, we will kick that war up to full speed and end Iran in 100 days."

But Republicans forget the crucial step of war and "private industry" creating millions of jobs -- the Government is the customer and is buying all that stuff. Spending is spending whether its for bombs or for bridges. The difference is, if you spend to build a bridge, you get a bridge. If you spend to build a bomb you get a useless bomb that sits in a warehouse and has to be guarded. Republicans never seem to grasp this concept.

Make no mistake -- spending ISN'T going down. Taxes ARE NOT going up.

And look -- last week tbill yields hit record lows....everyone is throwing money at us. there is no need to cut spending dramatically. or raise taxes right now. Republicans claim that cutting spending will free up money for industrial investment, a sound economic principle. But even if that worked -- it would take a minimum of a year to START to show impact. And if Romney also follows through with cutting foodstamps, healthcare, social security, welfare and Section 8, it could be years before any positive impact is seen - years of starving children, homeless elderly and so on. And with foreigners throwing money at us, we don't need to do it right now.

I predicted the fed would implement QE3 in June, and they were oh so close but didnt. Bernanke didnt even mention it in July....I doubt he will talk about it in August unless June economic stats are bad. the govt is uneven...housing prices are the highest they have been since 2008. But earnings are slipping. Interest rates are at record lows. but no one is borrowing. and so on. If unemployment starts to go up even a little, then you will see QE3. They will throw money at the consumer. However you can't do that AND keep interest rates low forever. We are going to see big inflation from food prices this fall/winter anyway due to the drought in the midwest (non-existent global warning anyone?) and I expect a warmer than normal winter. The entire Greenland ice cover melted in 4 days last month, though to be fair this appears to be a cyclic event.

Politically, all indicators show Obama as strong favorite to win the election. The RNC and Superpac ads are overwhelming Obama something like 4 to 1 right now, and its worse in swing states. But if Romney wins -- the entire government, all 4 branches, will be in the hands of the Republicans. The US will become like Mexico. It's what they did when Bush was Pres and they will do it again --- absolute power corrupts absolutely. And Romney hasn't had an orignal thought in 20 years. He will be a puppet of the right. And the right wants war with Syria or Iran. War with Syria is a proxy war with Russia. That's one reason we aren't there now. War with Iran means the end of the US as a super-power. We will be a 3rd world nation with a huge army and nothing more, no influence, no power projection, irrelevant. If Obama wins you get two choices -- more of the last 4 years -- OR...bold initiatives that will go nowhere AND scathing rhetoric. A second term President Obama has nothing to lose. He wont have the senate or congress. But he WILL have the Executive Order that allows him to rule like a king for 4 years. At least til 2014 Congress wont have the numbers to impeach him. But he is between a rock and a hard place -- raise taxes or cut spending and send the economy into depression.

No matter what, we are going into depression or recession and we are losing power and influence. For this we can thank Bush. The war with Iraq cost us the future and propelled China to the world stage. They are the new superpower and there will be few who are going to pick the US over the Chinese. The US is nice but China is a brutal enemy with a long memory. The US forgets its friends on a regular basis. Ask Georgia after Bush swore to the living Christ he would protect them from the Russians. Yeah. Ok. It was Czechoslovakia 1968 all over again. This is a constant US pattern. And don't think I'm just condemning Bush -- Obama threw Mubarak under the bus as soon as the opportunity presented itself, despite 30 years of trust and friendship. Mubarak was a brutal despot but so what? He gave us Egypt from the Russians. We COULD have offered him refuge. But we did what Americans do -- use people and nations like our toilet paper.

Things are sliding. It's not because of our debt. On the contrary -- it's because there is not enough Keynesian activity. And as long as we carry the personal debt load we carry it will be hard, oh so hard, for us to recover. Obama knew that it would take something like the internet boom of the 90s for that to happen, and he tried to spark that by investing in Green Technology, but the Chinese undercut our prices, the Germans overrode our technology and the Republicans second guessed the strategy so that hope failed. If we DONT get something like the internet of the 90s again, then America will be a has-been nation in no time at all. Not like Greece, but more like England. Reflecting glory of the past, with flashes of power and brilliance but without the strength to impose its will unless it fires a gun.

Aurora and Gun Control

All the people from both sides screaming "gun control" or "2nd Amendment" are wrong.
The issue is not about the government taking guns away from us. I don't think that is going to happen.

The issue is basic licensing and rudimentary reporting. Gun people are terrified of a national gun ID. They think it will be used by the government to eventually hunt them down and round up their guns. So be it. No national ID.

But there SHOULD be uniform standards for gun permitting. In Florida it is easier for a convicted felon to get a gun permit than it is for a Black man to register to vote Democrat. I am not even joking..

The different standards for gun ownership are so loose that its crazy. In Arizona all you need is a license. In Mass. you need to go through a complex formula. Gun people are afraid permitting will be so the police can arbitrarily deny the permit.

It would be better if all the states had the same mechanism, one that required fingerprints, training, background check and references. There would be no approve/deny. It would be an automatic yes. But at least there would be some kind of check. It does not have to be monitored by the Federal government, they would just make the standards and hand them to the state. And it would be automatic approval unless there was a red flag.

Statistical analysis of gun sales was made illegal by George W. Bush. For example, it was discovered that something like 70 percent of all the guns used in crimes in NYC came from a single store in Altanta, Georgia. Don't you think this warrants an investigation? The Bush Administration made collection of that data and sharing it illegal. Why? Wouldn't it be helpful to know WHO is supplying the guns? That store in Atlanta is STILL supplying the guns criminals in NYC need. Bush made it impossible to investigate them.

Guns all make a signature when they shoot. Every barrel is unique. It seems only common sense to "fingerprint" the ID of every gun when it is made. Yet that is illegal. Why? Most gun crimes could be solved in minutes if this were done.

Without getting into "Fast and Furious" debate, the issue there is that an 18 year old can make alot of money going into a gun store, buy 50 AK47s and give/sell them to a guy in the parking lot. The only thing to stop him is a check box on a blue form that makes you swear you aren't a strawman buyer. Those forms are never back-checked again and the police have no authority to go to the buyer and say, "show me those 50 guns". There is no teeth to the law. The form means nothing.

It's not the buying and selling of guns that's the issue, although it is something we should discuss -- it is now legal for Americans to own the M134 Mini Gun, that shoots 5000 rounds a minute. Imagine John Holmes showing up at the theater with that strapped to his Jeep. He could have killed everyone in the theater -- shooting through the walls -- in less than a minute. But that's another issue. The issue is how we track guns and use statistics.

Some moron said that people carrying a gun are more trained and prepared than a bad guy with a knife. That is bullshit. The very vast majority of people carrying a gun in their pants or purse have absolutely no conception what they are doing. This can EASILY be proven by comparing the number of guns purchased to the number of people registered for gun training classes. Confronted by a knife wielding criminal, one who is has experience robbing people and carrying a knife, those people will almost never get their gun into action before they've been stabbed 5 times. Unless you practice, unless you train FREQUENTLY, you can't get the gun out of your purse, pull it out from behind your jacket or get it out of your under the waist holster faster than the criminal can stab you. You are going to lose. He does this all the time. You get robbed once. He's ready. You're surprised. And then -- in the event you get your Glock out and start blazing -- what are you going to do if you miss and kill some innocent person behind him? A child? Unlike TV bullets don't evaporate when they miss their target. They go for about a mile unless they hit something. And yet there is no requirement to train to own a gun.

Gun people point to all kinds of ineptness by the police and their ability to catch criminals. Yet when it comes to gun siezure the government is somehow all knowing and all powerful and evil. And the government is inept when it comes to gun crimes -- the NRA has made sure of it by tripping up every rational and reasonable mechanism a law enforcement agency would use to track a killer.

Last year 15 Americans were killed by Arab or Muslim terrorists.
31,500 Americans were killed by guns. And yet we are unable to do anything at all to reduce that number. The NRA and the gun people won't let it happen.

Round Up of Recent Events and Commentary

Whew! It's been awhile since I posted. Let's catch up on things....

Greece

So Greece elected a new government and the Germans are being cajoled into relieving some of the pressure on the Greece gov't to repay debt.

Losers!

Doesn't matter who is in charge in Greece. Greece is GONE. I have said this before and I will say it again: GREECE CANNOT RECOVER. Greece refuses to reform its taxation system and refuses to work to balance its budget. These things MUST happen. Oh and by the way, Greece MUST default. There is NO OTHER OPTION. All of the bailouts and any relief they encompass only serve to delay the inevitable. Greece is going broke. All that is happening now is the EU is blindly kicking the can down the road. Greece MUST and WILL officially default. It is absolutely inevitable. The sooner they do it, the sooner they can recover. It is VERY difficult to get statistics about the Greece budget but recently they bought a new missile frigate from France. WHY? The French love it of course, but why would this money be wasted? If you HAVE to buy a warship, there are plenty of obsolete but still serviceable warships being sold by every first world navy for a fraction of the price of the new warship. But even then, this is just an example of the blindness of the Greek government. Recently, as part of the reform of Greece taxation, the EU demanded the Greeks accept German accountants and technocrats to investigate and report on reforms. The Germans could not believe the level of corruption, mismanagement, nepotism, and so on that they found. They recommended dozens of sensible reforms. The Greeks had them arrested for espionage. There is just too much money to be made by the leaders of Greece for them to allow the tax system to work correctly. Greece is FUCKED. They are not even trying to balance their budget. Without balancing the budget there is no hope of paying off the 150 billion dollars of debt they have accrued. And yet they still want the bailout funds and to stay in the Euro. This is the most insulting and egregious affront to the world by any government since the Russians did whatever they do every week. Insane.

Here is what needs to happen. Greece defaults and says, "sorry we won't be paying back that debt." They leave the Euro. THEN THEY BALANCE THE BUDGET. They have to -- no one will give them a nickel for awhile. The economy will collapse. Perhaps they reform the taxation system even a little. And then -- they NO LONGER HAVE TO MAKE PAYMENTS! It's almost like getting free money. Instead of paying interest and principal, they have that money for servicing the country. Will there be pain?

There will be pain like you can't believe. Skyrocketing unemployment. Starving elderly. Suicides. Hopelessness. PAIN.

But it will pass. Once the shock is over, the government can re-structure within its means. They should slash defense spending such that only soldiers get paid. There would be few, if any ships in the navy that leave the pier. No tanks or maintenance. Soldiers would remain on duty because they need an army and these people would not be in the unemployment lines, but they would be relegated to walking instead of driving in trucks and so on. The air force would be slashed. And so on. There would be lots of public employees laid off. The government would have to focus on the essentials - trash collection, water works, insuring communcations and electricity, courts and jails, road repair. Nothing else matters.

But on the plus side, there would growth again. It would take five years to recover. We've seen this over and over in Latin America. Then once growth starts and they manage the budget, then they can re-apply to be in the Euro again. Perhaps they can even take on debt at reasonable levels. But without going broke there is no way they can grow.

Greece needs to go broke.

Europe

Europe is an awesome example of where the US would be if the Confederacy won the Civil War because Europe is a confederacy. In the American Confederacy, states had more power than the central government. Essentially, each state was like a country, just as Europe is. The government has little power to tax, manage the currency, manage budgets, control environmental damage and so on. Sound familiar? It's Europe. In Europe each country is refusing to give up its sovereignty. Until it does so it can never achieve the greatness of the United States. A strong Federal government is necessary to co-ordinate resources, budgets, and impose its will to impact the greater good. The EU is going to eventually collapse or suffer decades of infighting, band-aids and slow growth until they recognize this. The individual countries/states MUST NOT be allowed to run deficits at a minimum. There must be a capital (presumably its Brussels which is hilarious since Belgium is constantly on the brink of civil war) and a strong European leader. Then they can grow like crazy. Currently the main b beneficiary of a weak Europe is Russia -- and they know it. On a small scale, the current problems show the Germans were right during WW2. On a large scale, the Russians win this war again, on a much larger scale than they did in May, 1945.

Syria

HAHAHA. The Arab Spring turns out to be confusing and messy. Syria was always going to be the tough nut. The Russian proxy state and the last Russian base outside of Russia insured this would be true. The emerging Russian powerhouse is not going to let Syria slip away easily and the US cannot aid Syrian opposition openly without directly opposing Russia. Also, there is no co-ordinated opposition in Syria. Alot of the rebels are Al Qaeda and the US certainly can't help THEM. So it's a tough situation. Israel is totally alarmed because they face serious issues in Egypt for the first time since the Camp David Accords. I have thought for a long time that the answer was always Turkey. The US still has some influence in Turkey (though there is a growing resentment against the US there) and Turkey can and has confronted Syria as a result of the shooting down of a Turkish jet by the jittery Syrians. I thought for sure that this would be the entre Turkey needed to land a solid blow on Syria (on behalf of the Americans) without confronting the Russians. But that brouhaha seems to have settled down. I still have hope this will happen but who knows? Assad is finished but I predict we will see Russian combat troops in action there before this is over. And don't think for a minute that when Assad falls, the rebels will not forget the part the Russians played in this affair. When the Russians leave Syria they will be looking for another foothold in the middle east and they will be making lots of mischief there.

Book Recommendations

I just read a great book called "Why Nations Fail". An extra-ordinary compilation and study of successful and failed nations throughout history it offers a new explanation for why nations rise and fall. It needs to be book ended with Jared Diamond's "Collapse" which is itself a brilliant discourse on the steps all nations follow to their death. Diamond takes into account the devastating impact of religion and how it helped every major empire to fail while James Robinson's "Why Nations Fail" never mentions religion once. In effect, Robinson says that for nations to succeed there must be a strong central government that is controlled by voters; that innovation is allowed by protecting patents; that contracts and patent rights are enforced; that labor has the right to move freely to jobs and careers and that monopolies are punished. In addition there needs to be a concept that no man is above the law and laws need to be generally fair. The problem is that the elite in any society do everything they can to stay in power by weakening the power of labor, citizenry, laws and business. When this happens there is no incentive for original creation and no profit. It benefits a few at the expense of the many, and eventually there is either collapse or violence, inevitably poverty. This should be read by anyone who wants to see how rich people are undermining the US ability to succeed.

The Republican Manifesto

Herewith the stated beliefs of the Republican Party in America.

1)      America was founded on Christian principles of love and tolerance and Republicans reserve the right to kill or torture anyone who thinks otherwise

a.       America has the freedom of religion, except for religions Republicans don’t like

2)      Any time science contradicts religion, then it must be the science that is wrong

a.       Vaccinations cause autism

b.      HPV vaccinations for girls will only cause them to have sex

c.       HPV vaccinations should be illegal because it is ALWAYS preferable that young girls get cancer rather than have sex

d.      There is no global climate change, even though 97 percent of climate scientists believe there is and those that don’t are paid primarily by the oil and coal industry

e.      There is no evolution, the world was made by God 6000 years ago so “The Flintstones” was historically accurate – men could actually ride on dinosaurs

f.        Flouride in the water is mind control by Democrats with good teeth

g.       Stem cell research is against God’s will unless it can help a sick Republican

h.      American men never really landed on the moon – it was all staged

i.         Ghosts and witches are real but science is fake unless it supports a Republican’s position

j.        Overfishing doesn’t drive fish to extinction and any scientific research that says it does is junk science

k.       Any attempt to educate Americans to the harm of childhood obesity is creeping socialism and fascism

l.         Homosexuality is a lifestyle choice and is not genetic therefore it’s ok to ridicule fags

m.    Second hand smoke from cigarettes is harmless and in fact, is probably beneficial

n.      All funding for science that is found to contradict religion MUST be eliminated

o.      Since God said there is only life on earth we shouldn’t spend any money seeking for life anywhere else in the Universe because, ipso facto, there IS no life anywhere else

p.      We KNOW the Bible is the unerring word of God because the Bible tells us so

q.      The forced medical experiments and treatments on people against their will by the Nazis was horrible torture, but it’s acceptable to force pregnant women considering abortion to have an ultrasound wand rammed up their vagina, even if it means strapping them to the gurney.

3)      Republicans are more deserving than poor people and Democrats and should have special consideration

4)      Homosexuals should not be allowed to serve in the military and hurt unit cohesiveness and the thousands of them already fighting for America on foreign soil should be ridiculed, dishonorably discharged and not allowed to receive any benefits for their wounds or deaths

5)      Republicans are compassionate and believe they should step OVER the homeless, not ON them, because it is easier to ignore them that way.

6)      If people are poor it’s because they deserve it and should be punished for being poor. If they are punished enough, eventually they will either find ways to not be poor or they will die of starvation, and in either case, it’s a win-win.

7)      Education should always be managed by the Church to protect our youth from learning to think

a.       Any time science contradicts the Bible it MUST be the science that is wrong

b.      To prevent youth from straying from the Church we must codify religious beliefs into secular law

c.       The US was founded on Christian principles, even if there is no history to back that up and lots of documents that contradict this belief, all of which must be banned

d.      People and documents, like Thomas Jefferson and the Treaty of Tripoli, that specifically state the US was not founded on Christian principles should be marginalized or destroyed

8)      Pollution equals prosperity. There should be no restrictions on where industry should dump its waste

9)      War means jobs and jobs are more important than peace or a clean environment

10)   If a species of animal goes extinct, it’s not because of overhunting by humans but because of God’s will

a.       If we hunt or poison a plant or animal to extinction we can always pray to God for him to restore it…and if it doesn’t happen, it means God doesn’t think it’s important enough to restore therefore we should never worry about it either

11)   If a natural disaster happens, it’s not because of physics or scientific law but because God is punishing those people affected by the disaster, especially if they are in Democratic regions

a.       Republican regions affected by disasters should be bailed out immediately, but emergency relief for Democratic regions or states MUST be banned to avoid creeping socialism or to reduce the Federal deficit

12)   Telling lies is the right of Republicans; being blamed for being liars is the role of Democrats

13)   Marriage must only be between one man and one woman because the Tradition that women are the property of men must be kept sacred

a.       This rule only has one exception – and that is for Republicans in Utah where Marriage is only between one man and up to as many women or young girls as he can score

14)   Morality applies only to Democrats: Republicans are allowed cheat on their spouse, see hookers, take bribes, invade other countries and be gays getting blowjobs in restrooms but we will always scream about Democrats when they get caught. Republicans who get caught deserve compassion, understanding and rehabilitation.

15)   Women are precious and should always be protected by staying in the house and taking care of their men – the Republican Credo on Equality of the Sexes: “Make me a sammich, bitch, and shut up!”

16)   Abortion is wrong and should be illegal except in the case where it might harm the career of a Republican man, in which case the woman should be FORCED to have an abortion even if she doesn’t want it

a.        in any case, the man should NEVER have to pay a nickel  of child support for the kid and the bitch should not be allowed any public funding support -- that will teach the bitch to keep her slut legs closed even if her bastard starves.

17)   It is always better to allow the entire country to fail than to see a Democrat succeed, indeed, it is the duty of Republicans to force the country to fail rather than to let a Democrat succeed.

18)   Using taxpayer funds to support healthcare at home is rampant socialism bordering on fascism but blowing trillions on foreign wars is acceptable capitalism

19)   Republicans are never racists, and all lazy niggers, illegal spics, suspicious chinks, terrorist towel heads and cheap kikes should wise up to this fact

20)   It is the Republican goal to convince all niggers, spic, chinks and kikes to vote for our Big Tent Party, because Republicans love everyone, especially at election time

21)   All Americans are created equal but Republicans are more equal than anyone else and deserve more consideration – the Republican Credo of Equality: “After Me, You’re First!”

22)   The Army was made for poor people and Democrats. The Defense Credo of the Republicans: “Let’s you and him go fight!”

23)   Any time the media prints a story about Republicans getting caught taking bribes, getting blowjobs in restrooms, wearing diapers with hookers or calling Africa a country, it’s because of liberal bias

24)   Welfare should be abolished because it is ALWAYS better to let children, the disabled and the elderly starve to death than for us to waste taxpayer money on the few people who actually scam the system

25)   Capital punishment is necessary even if innocent people are executed because they still serve as an example of what can happen to you and that’s far more important than their innocence

26)   Any Republican politician knows far more about the economics of running the country than any economist or researcher who has spent their entire lives studying it, therefore, any time an economist contradicts a Republican, it is the economist who is wrong

27)   Welfare is a scam and all poor children, retards, crippled and elderly people should be drug tested and forced to work for any handouts that we provide out of our infinite generosity and pity and these moochers should be ridiculed at every opportunity

28)   In America, everyone gets to vote and since corporations are people, they get to vote too and their votes count more because they give us more money

a.       We MUST insure the security of voting by forcing voter ID cards on people, especially the people who are least likely to be capable of getting an ID, like the elderly, poor and black, since those people tend to vote Democrat

29)   Subsidies for farmers and farm corporations in Republican districts is a right but Social Security for the elderly is a socialist boondoggle that MUST be eliminated so that we can create more subsidies for Republican farm corporations

30)   Ronald Reagan proved that “Deficits don’t matter” except when Democrats are in office, then they are worse than the Devil and Democrats are destroying America with their evil deficits, even though 2/3s of all US debt was made by Reagan, Bush 1 and Bush 2

31)   All illegal immigrants are bad, except for those working for Republicans and working for less than minimum wage

32)   Title IX is a crime that must be reversed because no silly woman’s sport will ever be equal to a real man’s sport like Football, so why should we waste money on any woman’s sport?

a.       A Constitutional Amendment is required preventing women from EVER playing on men’s sport’s teams, to protect their femininity, their weak bodies and their hymens, which Republicans have a right to harvest at pre- and post-game booze parties

b.      Republicans are NEVER sexist because the bitches HATE that

33)   The Confederacy was all about State’s Rights, not about slavery and people and documents like “The Cornerstone Speech” that the Confederacy and Civil War were all about Slavery should be marginalized or destroyed and certainly never taught in school

34)   Political Correctness is wrong and it should ALWAYS be ok to call people wops, niggers, kikes, spics, retards, gay, faggots, lesbos, feebs and anything else we want, not only because it’s funny but because it’s what they are

35)   It is well understood that blowing trillions of dollars on any war, even one we lose, is acceptable Capitalism but spending money on the poor, healthcare or even fixing bridges and schools is unacceptable socialism or communism (unless the bridge or school being fixed is in a Republican district)

36)   The American Disability Act should be abolished because adversity builds character and those crips, feebs and blind people should just keep their hands out of my pocket and work harder to pull themselves up

37)   Blacks and other minorities caught with large quantities of drugs MUST be punished to the full extent of the law but Republicans caught taking drugs, selling drugs or with large quantities of drugs deserve the utmost compassion and as much rehab as possible, at the taxpayer’s expense

38)   It’s a proven scientific fact that God was a white man and anyone who professes otherwise or depicts God as black or a woman should be punished severely

39)   Everyone on Welfare and Foodstamps and other aid is a lazy crook stealing from the taxpayer, especially the cripples, retards, blind, feeble, elderly and children who have their hands in the pockets of every good, hardworking Republican

a.       Dog food is a perfectly healthy and cheap source of nutrition for the poor and elderly so there is no need for any kind of foodstamp program, which is just another way for people to have their hands the pocket of every Republican

40)   Republicans stand shoulder to shoulder in fervent support of Israel, even though the evil Jews killed our Lord and control all the banks and left wing media and should be gassed

41)   As Ron Paul said, sick Americans without insurance should turn to the Church for assistance. Prayer has been known to cure some problems and if it doesn’t, the Church will pray over their body.  And if they are dead, they are less of a burden on the economy.

42)   Any problem in America can be fixed by Tax Cuts for the Rich. If a tornado blows down a town in Kansas, cutting taxes for the rich will make new roads and phone poles magically emerge from the earth. If we are attacked by a foreign enemy, tax cuts for the rich will cause ships, planes and tanks to fall out of the sky to protect us

43)   A Republican’s fake medals, like those worn by George W. Bush that he never earned, are more worthy of respect than real medals earned by Democrats, like the Purple Hearts worn by John Kerry

44)   Any time a Democrat wins an election it is the result of voter fraud

45)   The Right to Bear Arms exists so that patriotic Americans can overthrow any democratically elected Democrat who might be in office

a.       The Second Amendment allows all Americans, including children, to own quad 37 millimeter anti-aircraft guns, and even ballistic missiles and the sooner we are all so armed the safer we will all be

b.      It is better to allow children in school to be armed and create free-fire zones in the event of a Columbine-like incident than it is to outlaw guns in school. The same is true for the workplace, churches, supermarkets and day-care centers.

46)   It is necessary to force school children to say the Pledge of Allegiance at school even though it conflicts with the Constitution, forces them to pray to a God they might not believe in and requires them to enter into an illegal, binding moral contract that they may neither understand nor believe in

a.       It’s necessary to force children to pray in school to a Christian god they may or may not believe in because the churches are failing and we have to help the churches brainwash children into blindly accepting Jesus Christ as their Savior without doing any critical thinking

47)   It’s totally acceptable for Fox News to sue the FCC to protect their explicit right to lie and deceive their viewers but news outlets that attempt to tell the truth are all filled with liberal bias

48)   Freedom of Speech is the first and most important of the Amendments except where that speech interferes with Republicans getting their way

a.       Flag burners should be jailed immediately because burning the flag is “different” than other speech

b.      Any institution that tells the actual truth about Republican actions is automatically guilty of “liberal bias”

c.       It is ok for Republican news outlets to lie or make up stories that make Democrats look bad because that is free speech, but any Democrats who do that should be punished for libel

Another Step Towards the Trainwreck

What did people expect, really? Of COURSE Hollande was going to be elected in France. Of COURSE the Greeks were going to throw off the yoke of austerity. Austerity SUCKS. Whooping it up on the credit card is much more fun and we'll just suffer later when the bill comes due. I've always likened the current situation to someone on heroin. Austerity is going straight...credit is the heroin. The politicians who pander to the drug-thirsty are the pushers. They don't care that the ship is going down -- they just want to be Captain and enjoy the good life as it sinks. They don't even care that they are part of the problem...no matter what happens, they aren't going to be affected, experience a minute of privation or desperation or hunger or loss.

So it only makes sense that the morons in France and Greece took the easy road. On the other hand, I've said all along that what Greece needs is to default. Now it appears certain that they will, officially. Unofficially they've been in default forever. Everyone recognizes it, they just studiously pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Will France default also? Will the Euro break down? What will happen?

Well it seems likely that the smaller desperate countries will default and pull out of the Euro...Greece certainly will, and who wants them anyway -- they were corrupt mis-managers from the beginning. And they got a free airport, Olympic stadium, a giant tunnel, a nice bridge and lots of swell improvements to the Acropolis FOR FREE! Not just for free, but they got the Germans to pay for them! And now that the Germans want their money back the Greeks are saying, "Fuck you and the Panzer you rode in on!" You see, the Germans can't take back that bridge or tunnel or airport or stadium. They don't have alot of leverage and it's not like Greece is the most trustworthy country in the EU...in fact, they are probably among the scummiest crooks in Government in all of Europe. They'll default and laugh all the way to the bank -- whatever bank will still survive.

And it will be a great experiment to watch the fun. Greece defaults. Their banking system collapses. Germany has to bail out its banks. It's the end of EU bailouts. More European countries default, like Portugal and Spain. Greece goes back to the Drachma...they still have a budget way out of whack but no one lends them money. They print it like crazy. Inflation ensues. They devalue the currency -- but since they import EVERYTHING, people can't afford anything. The banking system collapses. They tie their currency to the dollar or the pound...or the ruble. Too late...unemployment increases, money flees, people flee, tourism crashes...train wreck all around.

But when you are at rock bottom -- the only place to go is UP. They will finally get growth and growth they must have. 

What about France? What's a Gallic boy to do? They can't default. With the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world, the default of France would send ripples throughout the world. And what of Germany? Will they stand idly by as their erstwhile partners betray them left and right?
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And what is the lesson for America?

If France does not leave the EU then they must show a rational plan that cuts their federal budget just less rapidly than Sarkozy. They will still have to cut government benefits, increase the work week, make vacations shorter and so on. They will just do it slower. They may even request a bailout from....Russia. The Germans are most certainly going to turn to Russia now...Russia defaulted in the 1990s, went through hell,their country is still a wreck -- but they are running huge budget surpluses. Other than Finland and China, not too many countries in the world can say that.

It's too late for Spain and Portugal. They are fucked. Last week Holland collapsed and the Germans took over the financial system. They are on the train ride to hell. Does anyone really believe anymore you can "austerity" your way to growth? Is growth going to magically appear in a nation that spends nothing on infrastructure or invests in nothing? Because as the country makes the spiral down the drain, more is spent on welfare and less on building bridges...it HAS to...as more people become unemployed, tax receipts go down and payments to the indigent go up. Since they are cutting to balance the budget, that means less for bridges, schools, airports, etc. They crumble. Since people aren't building, aren't learning, aren't travelling...WHERE DOES THE GROWTH COME FROM?

In third world nations, they would get growth from doing things no one else wanted. Africa is dotted with chemical and radiological waste dumps. They trade their health for a pitiful few growth dollars and their children play in a miasma of chemical death. Europe won't do that. But nevertheless no one has been able to answer the question, "where does the magic growth come from under an austerity plan?"

And this is the lesson for America, primarily the Republicans. Greece is NOT like America. America CANNOT go the way of Greece. Unlike Greece, America has vast stores of wealth and resources. But America COULD look like Greece does now....just by following the Republican austerity plan. The Republicans think we can cut our way to prosperity. Did Greece? If there is no spending there can be little or no growth. How could there be? By cutting our trillion dollar deficit would mean cutting millions of jobs...again the death spiral as described above. The Republicans think they can cut that off at the pass by eliminating foodstamps and welfare. I can just see how that places in the poverty stricken South - 30 million starving American children on worldwide television.

For Europe, the long term solution is still Federalism. There must be a strong central government that controls monetary policy and the member states must not be allowed to run budget deficits - EVER. The Masstricht Treaty allows deficits of 2 - 3 percent per year but that assumes independent nations still have sovereign control of their currency, as if only the name "franc" changed to "euro". This is a fallacy. It MUST be more like the US where states are required to balance their budgets. Yes it will hurt alot and there will be depression. But once the money is fixed, everything else should follow...eventually.

The bigger question is what the Russians and Chinese will be doing in the meantime. I am sure they are looking at all of this with great glee.

On the Eve of the Titanic's Sinking

Chief Engineer Joseph Bell stood in front of his men, his hands on the gleaming brass handrails. He was dressed in his best blue woolen uniform, but his tie was askew and his face was ashen. The sound of the dynamos was loud, and Bell was a soft-spoken man, but his voice carried to each of the men in the chamber.

"My boys," he said, "the situation is grim. In fact I must tell you that there is no hope."

To underscore the situation, the floor tilted noticeably further and there was the sound of iron rivets popping loose, the sound was like gunfire. The men didn't flinch at the noise and hung on Bell's every word.

"There are not enough life boats for all the passengers," Bell continued, his lower lip trembling. Bell was a hard man and no one had seen him laid so low.

"The hope and lives of everyone aboard this vessel depend on the Marconi machine. The operators are working now to raise the nearest ship to come to our aid."

"Is there a ship?," Dillinger asked hopefully. The men leaned forward. Someone dropped a shovel and it clattered to the deck.

"It is my understanding the nearest ship is four hours away," Bell responded. A steam valve popped and the sound of hissing steam added to the creaks and groans of the settling ship.

"The ship shant swim that long," Bell trailed off.

"But the rescuers will need our lights to find the ship," Arvin called in, "in addition to the work of the wireless."

"It's what I have come to ask," Bell said softly, "and I cannot do it. You know what it means. The water is 40 degrees Fahrenheight..."

"Forty degrees!" someone exclaimed, "not a man will last an hour in that sea."

"Half that," Bell said. He looked around at each of them. They gripped their tools and looked back at him. The lights flickered and dimmed. One of the boilermen grabbed a series of valves and re-directed the diminishing steam pressure to the dynamos. The lights flared brightly.

"You can count on us," someone called to Bell.

"All of us," someone else replied.

Bell turned his back on them so they would not see his tears. The angle of the deck rose sharply. The entire ship groaned as the stern fought the pull of gravity and grip of the icy sea. The men looked at the ceiling girders. Everything was new and trim, manufactured by expert craftsmen of the best materials money could buy and designed to last a hundred years under the harshest of sea-going conditions. But every single man knew what was going to happen when that 15,000 ton stern lifted out of the water. Nothing made by men could resist the inevitable.

The lights flickered again and there was a signal lamp on the annunciator flashing from the Flying Bridge. Bell knew then that the forward bridge must be now under water. He picked up the sound phone. A voice called down from above.

"This is Murdoch," the voice cried breathlessly, "Is anyone there?"

"All here and ready, sir," Bell called proudly, loudly enough for every man to hear.

"We've lost power to the Bridge. We've got to keep the Radio Room getting electricity. Can you help us? It's our only hope!"

"Of course," Bell said, as it if it were a trifle, "It will be addressed at once."

The men sprang to action. They had no way of knowing if anyone was still in the Boiler Room firing the engines. They had no idea how much steam pressure was left to turn the dynamos or how long it would be sufficient to run the lights and machinery.

"Number one pump is down!," someone called and men sprang to do what they could.

"Fifty amps on the number two dynamo! Make 2500 revolutions!" someone called. Men jumped to the polished brass valves on the control panel.

Dillinger looked at the massive Hampton clock in the center of the panel. It was 1:59 AM. He pulled open his collar and ran to the electrical panel. All of the breakers servicing the forward part of the ship were open. Others started snapping open as water filled the normally-watertight junction boxes throughout the forward spaces of the ship. He grabbed the levers and forced them home. Some stayed in place, others blew instantly, showering him with sparks.

The men could now hear the screams of terror of the passengers from above. Dillinger was too busy to think of his own impending death but another jerk of the ship as it lifted out of the water brought him back to reality and he fought the lump in his throat. Was this really it? Was this how his life was to end? He looked around. Despite the crazy angle of the deck, the room was spotless. The tools were lined up in their cages. The gauges and valves were new and working flawlessly. The temperature was warm, the air dry. The lights burned brightly. How could this be the end? How?

The increasing angle of floor was apparent not only to the men but also to the ship which was now struggling past its design limit. The men could see the girders flexing and crimping. Rigid piping that was never designed for this kind of stress began to bend with a sickening scream. Flanges began to blow rivets and white hot steam blasted from the leaks.

"Live steam!" someone shouted and men shrank from the growing cloud. They knew live steam under pressure was invisible and would sever a limb cleaner than any blade. Dillinger couldn't help but look at the iron staircase and ladders leading to the catwalk and the escape doors. The sound of the steam filling the room was so loud that no one could talk. A man was down on the floor holding his belly. Dillinger couldn't tell what had happened to him. The angle increased yet again. There was the grinding sound of metal plates tearing at their seams. Dillinger worked frantically to force the knife switch breakers back into place. He could smell burning flesh coming from the area of Dynamo Number One. Someone must be dead or badly hurt, electrocuted trying to force the main breakers closed. Each time a breaker blew there was the cracking sound of electricity. The men trying to repair the steam flange gave up. He could see a pile up of bodies below the pipe. A white pipe next to it snapped and ice cold water blasted from the broken steel. Men yelled and pointed at the ceiling. The plates were starting to separate. Insulation, wiring and bits of paint and steel poured through the growing cracks into the room. Dillinger was shaking with fear. He saw Bell on the platform spinning valves to shut down Dynamo One and redirect all the remaining steam pressure to Dynamo Two. Dynamo One was out! Half the ship was without power! Dillinger knew at once the Radio Room was finished now. But it was critical to keep the lights blazing. How else would the rescue ships see them in the black night? He threw himself at the snapping breakers, checking the extremely dangerous main switch to make sure it was still sound -- miraculously it held!

The ship shifted again, the stern not just tilting up, but slewing forward as it slid under the water. There was a huge banging sound as the steel pipes of the catwalks snapped, the catwalks crashing down onto the huge dynamo, dragging pipes and wires and lights down with it. Men were screaming now, louder than the hissing steam, above the sound of ripping iron and snapping pipes. The lights flickered, many failed but a few survived, keeping the room lit but filled with shadows. The survivors continued their desperate work, some of them sobbing in terror and frustration. They had to cling to their work stations now, walking upright was impossible. Men were praying to God loudly. Bell was standing alone at the control station, gripping the main steam valve to remain upright, looking downward into the Dynamo Room. It would not be long now. The Hampton still ticked. It was 2:08 AM.

Dillinger heard another sound now and looked downward in horror as water swirled up from the forward bulkhead. He looked up to see water pouring down from the far ceiling and rapidly filling the Dynamo Room, gurgling and splashing as the bilge pumps struggled to clear it. Water and electricity was the terror of every seagoing electrician. The breakers continued to snap. Dillinger pushed them in and they blew again at once.

"Steam pressure's falling fast!" Someone yelled. They could all hear the dynamos spinning down as the steam fell. There was a loud crack as the ship split and fell a few feet towards the ocean. There was nothing more they could do. Without steam to turn the dynamos they could not make electricity. An electrician was working frantically at the battery panel redirecting the remaining power to the most critical functions -- but what was critical now? The bridge was under water...could they keep the navigation lights burning? Did they need to power the anchor motors anymore? What about the corridor morse lamps, surely they were top priority? Dillinger didn't know what to do anymore. The man at the battery stepped into the growing lake around him and suddenly started shaking...electrocuted by the powerful batteries!

The room was filling with clouds of steam now and water was up to the catwalks. Dillinger climbed to the control platform where Bell watched in horror. The ceiling split completely. The lights went out.

Dillinger and Bell grabbed each other in the dark. Things moved quicker now. The pitch of all the sounds combined and rose and it sounded to Dillinger like a steam train heading for them at top speed. There was nowhere to go. Dillinger jammed his foot into the rail. The only lights came from red emergency morse lamps still working throughout the room, powered by batteries. The sound of water rushing into the room filled Dillinger's ears and drowned out every other sound. He could smell the salt of the sea and feel the rush of the cold night air. It would not be long now. The ship was breaking in half and plunging towards the ocean. In the dim red glow Dillinger could see the hands of the Hampton clock click over to 2:17. Then there was a crash as the stern slammed back into the ocean. A pipe crashed from the ceiling and crushed Chief Engineer Bell. On it's way down it dragged Bell's body into the rising water. Dillinger couldn't see Bell sink but he felt the icy water climbing up his legs fast. It would only be a few more seconds. The screams of the passengers above him reached a fever pitch. Tools and pipes and all kinds of material spilled from above all around him. Dillinger saw the battery gauges glowing in the dark and realized they still had power, lots of power. He grabbed a breaker with his left hand, covering the copper with his open palm. Then with his other hand...he closed the circuit. A few remaining lights flared back on as Dillinger's body arced, then failed again and Dillinger's smoking body fell into the cold water. A few seconds later the marvelous Hampton clock passed under the water and stopped. It was 2:18AM.