On the Eve of the Titanic's Sinking

Chief Engineer Joseph Bell stood in front of his men, his hands on the gleaming brass handrails. He was dressed in his best blue woolen uniform, but his tie was askew and his face was ashen. The sound of the dynamos was loud, and Bell was a soft-spoken man, but his voice carried to each of the men in the chamber.

"My boys," he said, "the situation is grim. In fact I must tell you that there is no hope."

To underscore the situation, the floor tilted noticeably further and there was the sound of iron rivets popping loose, the sound was like gunfire. The men didn't flinch at the noise and hung on Bell's every word.

"There are not enough life boats for all the passengers," Bell continued, his lower lip trembling. Bell was a hard man and no one had seen him laid so low.

"The hope and lives of everyone aboard this vessel depend on the Marconi machine. The operators are working now to raise the nearest ship to come to our aid."

"Is there a ship?," Dillinger asked hopefully. The men leaned forward. Someone dropped a shovel and it clattered to the deck.

"It is my understanding the nearest ship is four hours away," Bell responded. A steam valve popped and the sound of hissing steam added to the creaks and groans of the settling ship.

"The ship shant swim that long," Bell trailed off.

"But the rescuers will need our lights to find the ship," Arvin called in, "in addition to the work of the wireless."

"It's what I have come to ask," Bell said softly, "and I cannot do it. You know what it means. The water is 40 degrees Fahrenheight..."

"Forty degrees!" someone exclaimed, "not a man will last an hour in that sea."

"Half that," Bell said. He looked around at each of them. They gripped their tools and looked back at him. The lights flickered and dimmed. One of the boilermen grabbed a series of valves and re-directed the diminishing steam pressure to the dynamos. The lights flared brightly.

"You can count on us," someone called to Bell.

"All of us," someone else replied.

Bell turned his back on them so they would not see his tears. The angle of the deck rose sharply. The entire ship groaned as the stern fought the pull of gravity and grip of the icy sea. The men looked at the ceiling girders. Everything was new and trim, manufactured by expert craftsmen of the best materials money could buy and designed to last a hundred years under the harshest of sea-going conditions. But every single man knew what was going to happen when that 15,000 ton stern lifted out of the water. Nothing made by men could resist the inevitable.

The lights flickered again and there was a signal lamp on the annunciator flashing from the Flying Bridge. Bell knew then that the forward bridge must be now under water. He picked up the sound phone. A voice called down from above.

"This is Murdoch," the voice cried breathlessly, "Is anyone there?"

"All here and ready, sir," Bell called proudly, loudly enough for every man to hear.

"We've lost power to the Bridge. We've got to keep the Radio Room getting electricity. Can you help us? It's our only hope!"

"Of course," Bell said, as it if it were a trifle, "It will be addressed at once."

The men sprang to action. They had no way of knowing if anyone was still in the Boiler Room firing the engines. They had no idea how much steam pressure was left to turn the dynamos or how long it would be sufficient to run the lights and machinery.

"Number one pump is down!," someone called and men sprang to do what they could.

"Fifty amps on the number two dynamo! Make 2500 revolutions!" someone called. Men jumped to the polished brass valves on the control panel.

Dillinger looked at the massive Hampton clock in the center of the panel. It was 1:59 AM. He pulled open his collar and ran to the electrical panel. All of the breakers servicing the forward part of the ship were open. Others started snapping open as water filled the normally-watertight junction boxes throughout the forward spaces of the ship. He grabbed the levers and forced them home. Some stayed in place, others blew instantly, showering him with sparks.

The men could now hear the screams of terror of the passengers from above. Dillinger was too busy to think of his own impending death but another jerk of the ship as it lifted out of the water brought him back to reality and he fought the lump in his throat. Was this really it? Was this how his life was to end? He looked around. Despite the crazy angle of the deck, the room was spotless. The tools were lined up in their cages. The gauges and valves were new and working flawlessly. The temperature was warm, the air dry. The lights burned brightly. How could this be the end? How?

The increasing angle of floor was apparent not only to the men but also to the ship which was now struggling past its design limit. The men could see the girders flexing and crimping. Rigid piping that was never designed for this kind of stress began to bend with a sickening scream. Flanges began to blow rivets and white hot steam blasted from the leaks.

"Live steam!" someone shouted and men shrank from the growing cloud. They knew live steam under pressure was invisible and would sever a limb cleaner than any blade. Dillinger couldn't help but look at the iron staircase and ladders leading to the catwalk and the escape doors. The sound of the steam filling the room was so loud that no one could talk. A man was down on the floor holding his belly. Dillinger couldn't tell what had happened to him. The angle increased yet again. There was the grinding sound of metal plates tearing at their seams. Dillinger worked frantically to force the knife switch breakers back into place. He could smell burning flesh coming from the area of Dynamo Number One. Someone must be dead or badly hurt, electrocuted trying to force the main breakers closed. Each time a breaker blew there was the cracking sound of electricity. The men trying to repair the steam flange gave up. He could see a pile up of bodies below the pipe. A white pipe next to it snapped and ice cold water blasted from the broken steel. Men yelled and pointed at the ceiling. The plates were starting to separate. Insulation, wiring and bits of paint and steel poured through the growing cracks into the room. Dillinger was shaking with fear. He saw Bell on the platform spinning valves to shut down Dynamo One and redirect all the remaining steam pressure to Dynamo Two. Dynamo One was out! Half the ship was without power! Dillinger knew at once the Radio Room was finished now. But it was critical to keep the lights blazing. How else would the rescue ships see them in the black night? He threw himself at the snapping breakers, checking the extremely dangerous main switch to make sure it was still sound -- miraculously it held!

The ship shifted again, the stern not just tilting up, but slewing forward as it slid under the water. There was a huge banging sound as the steel pipes of the catwalks snapped, the catwalks crashing down onto the huge dynamo, dragging pipes and wires and lights down with it. Men were screaming now, louder than the hissing steam, above the sound of ripping iron and snapping pipes. The lights flickered, many failed but a few survived, keeping the room lit but filled with shadows. The survivors continued their desperate work, some of them sobbing in terror and frustration. They had to cling to their work stations now, walking upright was impossible. Men were praying to God loudly. Bell was standing alone at the control station, gripping the main steam valve to remain upright, looking downward into the Dynamo Room. It would not be long now. The Hampton still ticked. It was 2:08 AM.

Dillinger heard another sound now and looked downward in horror as water swirled up from the forward bulkhead. He looked up to see water pouring down from the far ceiling and rapidly filling the Dynamo Room, gurgling and splashing as the bilge pumps struggled to clear it. Water and electricity was the terror of every seagoing electrician. The breakers continued to snap. Dillinger pushed them in and they blew again at once.

"Steam pressure's falling fast!" Someone yelled. They could all hear the dynamos spinning down as the steam fell. There was a loud crack as the ship split and fell a few feet towards the ocean. There was nothing more they could do. Without steam to turn the dynamos they could not make electricity. An electrician was working frantically at the battery panel redirecting the remaining power to the most critical functions -- but what was critical now? The bridge was under water...could they keep the navigation lights burning? Did they need to power the anchor motors anymore? What about the corridor morse lamps, surely they were top priority? Dillinger didn't know what to do anymore. The man at the battery stepped into the growing lake around him and suddenly started shaking...electrocuted by the powerful batteries!

The room was filling with clouds of steam now and water was up to the catwalks. Dillinger climbed to the control platform where Bell watched in horror. The ceiling split completely. The lights went out.

Dillinger and Bell grabbed each other in the dark. Things moved quicker now. The pitch of all the sounds combined and rose and it sounded to Dillinger like a steam train heading for them at top speed. There was nowhere to go. Dillinger jammed his foot into the rail. The only lights came from red emergency morse lamps still working throughout the room, powered by batteries. The sound of water rushing into the room filled Dillinger's ears and drowned out every other sound. He could smell the salt of the sea and feel the rush of the cold night air. It would not be long now. The ship was breaking in half and plunging towards the ocean. In the dim red glow Dillinger could see the hands of the Hampton clock click over to 2:17. Then there was a crash as the stern slammed back into the ocean. A pipe crashed from the ceiling and crushed Chief Engineer Bell. On it's way down it dragged Bell's body into the rising water. Dillinger couldn't see Bell sink but he felt the icy water climbing up his legs fast. It would only be a few more seconds. The screams of the passengers above him reached a fever pitch. Tools and pipes and all kinds of material spilled from above all around him. Dillinger saw the battery gauges glowing in the dark and realized they still had power, lots of power. He grabbed a breaker with his left hand, covering the copper with his open palm. Then with his other hand...he closed the circuit. A few remaining lights flared back on as Dillinger's body arced, then failed again and Dillinger's smoking body fell into the cold water. A few seconds later the marvelous Hampton clock passed under the water and stopped. It was 2:18AM.

Should We Bomb Iran

"Iran's WMD is the impact a war would have on the world economy once Iran is attacked."
- Barry Ritholz, "The Big Picture"

There must be something in the drinking water in this country that makes people stupid. Seriously. The only reason we seem to like war so much MUST be because of something in the drinking water. In actuality, I think Americans like war because it's always "over there". They don't see the real horror. Other than 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombings, America has been extremely lucky about war. As a result, it seems more like "entertainment" to most Americans than what it is.

That being said, we now have the Republican candidates criticizing Barack Obama for not being tough enough on Iran and their nuclear program. They would "take action". They are beating the war drums. George Bush didn't do a thing about the Iran program -- he was too busy losing the Iraq war. He didn't do a thing about North Korea either, and they actually exploded a lame bomb. So why are they beating their war drums? Political expediency, of course. They are trying to create a new reality show for the morons, I mean their constituents, who like this sort of thing.

On the other hand, there is a real situation with Iran that has to be monitored. The first question is, Is Iran really building a nuclear weapon? The answer is almost certainly yes. We know this because of the method of enrichment they are implementing. It's not used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. It's used to enrich weapons grade materials. Therefore, the conclusion MUST be that they are building a nuclear weapon.

The next important question is, Why are they building a nuclear weapon? If you ask the Republicans it's because they are madmen and terrorists, Islamic extremists and so on. But the answer is much, much simpler. They are building a nuclear weapon to keep from being attacked by the West. Note that no nation that acquires a nuclear weapon has ever been invaded or attacked. The Iranians are not madmen. They saw what happened to Iraq, and they know they were next. If the Republicans win in November, they know they ARE next. Even the Israelis acknowledge that there is a point after which they can no longer safely attack Iran. This point ultimately is when Iran tests its first device...because then they probably have multiple devices and those could be deployed in any number of ways. Notice also that many countries around  Iran have nukes -- Pakistan, their unstable next door neighbor: Israel, their other unstable next door neighbor. What reason can the world give for NOT allowing them to have a nuclear weapon? They are certainly in far better shape than Pakistan.

So we've established they are building a bomb and seem to have rational reasons to do it. We've taken the position that we have to do something about it -- but what? Is war the answer? What does "war" mean in this context?

First of all, one thing no one is talking about is how much a war with Iran would cost. The Iraq war cost us about $1 trillion directly. How much would a war with Iran cost? What would be the objectives? What does victory look like? What's the exit strategy.

I imagine the objective would be to end or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program; it would be accomplished by bombing several Iranian nuclear sites; it would require action to keep the Straits of Hormuz open; it require a close-ended campaign and would have a definite end scale, regardless of accomplishment. That being said, the BEST CASE scenario, based on rapidity of the US advance in the Iraq war, is that the attack would cost a minimum of $50 Billion dollars. That does not include the economic impact of the war, the run up in the price of gas and oil and so on.

Many other commentators have already stated that the 100 or so planes the Israelis could bring to bear would not be enough to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear sites. Therefore, heavy US bombers, such as the B2 and the B52 would be needed. If air superiority could be achieved, the Israelis could modify C130 type cargo planes to drop bigger munitions but the risks are huge. So assuming the US involves its bomber fleet, it would mean flying from Guam, England and Germany at a minimum and possibly Italy, Spain and Turkey. Rumors state the Israelis are entering into agreements with Cyprus and Azerbajan to use their airfields and airspace.

It's important to discuss the Straits of Hormuz here. The straits are about 30 miles across, but ships can only pass through about a mile of it, so its rather narrow. Something like 30 percent of the world's oil passes through the Straits, but not US oil. Therefore, China, India, Japan, South Korea and so on have an extremely vested interest in keeping the Straits open. There will be enormous pressure on the US to insure the Straits are  not closed once the shooting starts. This would mean the entire fighting strength of more than once carrier group to knock out Iranian naval ships, as well as command and control centers on the shore. There is absolutely no doubt that US Marines will have to be employed to capture, destroy and abandon many ground installations. There would have to be a concerted effort to neutralize Iran submarines before they damage US ships or even sink themselves in the Strait. Oil laden ships might also become targets of the Iranians. Radar and fire control sites, as well as missile launchers, and Iranian Air Force assets would have to be neutralized. The United States would be hard pressed to suppress and destroy this large number of targets in such a short time. No doubt cruise missiles and other remote assets would be involved. It would take multiple days and thousands of sorties. It would be reasonable to assume US casualties to planes, ships and men. It's likely there would also be collateral damage to tankers in the Gulf and it's highly likely that traffic in the Straits would be halted for some amount of time, whether its days or weeks depends on the determination and capabilities of the Iranians.

My assumption is that the absolute best case would indicate an attack of duration of a week. What would be the ramifications? As soon as the attack became known gold would skyrocket; US bonds would collapse; oil would skyrocket and gasoline would spike. In addition, the US debt would increase as well. Over the next week we would see diplomatic protests against the US from China and Russia, and possibly India. We would hope they would not create mischief. No doubt Iranian exports would stop for awhile, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. An additional 20 millions barrels would be halted from moving through the Straits for a period of time. This would not only cause huge price spikes but real hardship in many parts of the world...shortages, layoffs, industrial failure, unemployment, recession, debt. The longer oil failed to move the worse the impacts would be. This is the true WMD of Iran.

No doubt within hours or days of a US attack, the Mahdi Army in Iraq would revolt. It's possible the US might have to send troops back to Iraq to keep the government from falling. Much of Iraq is pro-Iranian now and it's possible Iraq would fall into all out civil war. It's likely Iran would be able to fire many of this medium range missiles, possibly hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, possibly Kurdistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the UAE. If the missiles hit oil fields or oil production facilities, the resultant loss of oil would be an even bigger hardship to the world.

It is possible that Iran could disperse its three former-Soviet submarines into the world where they could target tanker lanes, sinking tankers until they were located and destroyed. The impact of this would be more to cause the insurance rates for tankers to skyrocket, something that is passed on to the cost of each barrel of oil.

Within a couple of weeks, much of Iran's offensive capability would be destroyed. Pakistan would be in turmoil with massive Al Qaeda and Taliban sentiment. It is extremely possible that Pakistan would be engulfed in civil war or revolution, with the Al Qaeda faction winning. Under these conditions, the US would be forced to invade the nuclear dumps in Pakistan and seize their nuclear weapons. It would not do any good to bomb them because we would never be sure to have eliminated these weapons. It would be necessary to attack, invade and hold until we could account for the weapons. The fury of the Pakistan citizenry and army should not be under-estimated. They could strike back at US assets or even India. Afghanistan would likely devolve into anti-American violence.

It seems likely that Hamas would launch an all out attack on Israel. There would be 100s of rockets launched at Israel, causing massive retaliation against Hamas and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. The question would remain as to what Egypt would then do. There is already an unhappy truce between Egypt and Israel and there would most certainly be a price to be paid. What that price is, no one knows.

After a month or so, the US would have assessed the success of the raids. At this point the US would either have to renew the attacks to insure target sites have been neutralized or they would have to offer an olive branch to the Iranian government. The way Iran has its military sites would mean significant civilian casualties. This may drive the citizenry to support the government and launch a far-reaching hatred against the US, in ways that would not become clear for months or even years as retribution is taken. "Death by a thousand cuts" is not something to be dismissed lightly. Iran would have suffered many billions in damage. What would be the de-escalation process be then? Would we just wipe our hands and walk away? There is no doubt that multiple carrier groups would have to be deployed in the Straits for months after the attack.

Back at home in the US, gasoline would possibly be in the seven to eight dollars a gallon range. This would be a huge hardship to Americans. The price would take up to 125 dollars a week from American family pockets. The economy would slow down considerably. Layoffs would grow. Car sales would collapse. Import prices would grow rapidly. It would mean a serious recession. The site "Political Calculations" uses a formula that determines the impact of gasoline prices on unemployment. According to their formula, a price of $7.50 for gasoline would result in a direct unemployment rate of about 17 percent, with a total unemployment of 30 percent or more. The country would be in free fall. The resulting collapse in tax revenues combined with the cost of the war could easily add 500 billion to the deficit within the first year after the war. We could see 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars in total deficit spending within a year when you add the new deficit spending to the existing deficit spending. It would be a spiral of failure leading to a collapse of functional governance. The government would have to dissolve at least 1/2 its cabinets, with resulting layoffs and chaos within the states. The dollar would no longer be the reserve currency because it would be worthless. Eventually, no one would be lending money to the US and interest rates would look like those in Greece. On top of all this, the US would have to be on constant guard from Iranian attacks, Al Qaeda attacks and other extremism in all its forms.

The US would have to pull back from so many obligations and the hardships within the country would be those that have not been experienced since the Depression, if ever. This would open the door to rampant Chinese expansionism. In addition, its possible Europe would be in free fall, opening the door to Russian expansionism and mischief, and the US would be in no position to thwart them. It's possible the US would declare bankruptcy, but this seems radical in the first year. It's possible it would happen in Year 5, however.

Perhaps this sounds extreme, but it's not that far fetched to believe that any, if not all of these things could happen. It is extremely likely that an attack would result in a US recession or depression and the US cannot take too much more debt right now -- not without some major restructuring of how the US government does business.

In the end, the Iranians will have exploded not their nukes but their economic WMD and when they do the winners will be the Chinese and the Russians and the loser will the Europeans and the Americans. War with Iran would be suicide. Let's not do it.