I have been doing a great deal of reading and as a result I have discovered that the year 2035 looms large. It's only 20 years away and yet it is around this time that so much in the world will have changed from now that we would be greatly surprised is we woke up and it was that year. Here are some of the things I have learned are expected to occur around then:
- the last US WW2 veteran will have died
- the last newspaper, probably the Wall Street Journal, will be published
- there will be no more paper and stamp greeting cards
- the US Postal Service will be gone or vastly changed
- cars will drive themselves, at least most of the time
- elephants, rhinos and hippos will be extinct except possibly for a few specimens in zoos
- we will have gone to Mars, or be about to (that is, the Chinese will be going there)
- New Orleans will be largely abandoned because it will be largely underwater
- Provincetown, Massachusetts, will be an island no longer attached to the Mass.
- there will be no more paper books published, at least none in large quantities
- TV/Computers will be paper-thin and wall sized, with screens in every room
- John Roberts will be the last of the Supreme Court justices we know today still on the court
- phones will be adhesive strips attached to the skin, with special glasses or even contact lenses providing heads up display...where people look weird talking to themselves on Bluetooth today, they will look even stranger talking AND stabbing at invisible keyboards while they walk around
These are not really predictions. Predictions are guesses that are made from trends mostly based on imagination. The above things that actually will happen. It would be as if you lived in 1912 and said the following:
- horses will dwindle in number and be rarely seen
- people will travel around the world in huge aircraft, possibly zeppelins and maybe small private aircraft for the well off
- horsewhips will disappear
And so on. In those days, I think most people would not have been able to conceive of a world where horses were not everywhere. In fact, it had been theorized at the time that New York City would become bankrupt just dealing with the amount of horse manure generated in the city on a daily basis. The auto actually saved NYC from disaster. In those days, it was necessary for the city to set aside large tracts for stables and livery, for the transport of enormous quantities of hay and feed, there was a huge leather industry supporting saddles and harnesses, there were cranes to lift and remove dead horses from the street, and sweepers to pick up manure. There was a massive fleet of open air wagons just to move the manure away and the flies and stench, especially on hot days, was said to be horrific. On rainy days it was possible to become covered with filth just from splashing wagons as they went by. And when zoodemics struck, the need for vet services far exceeded supply. The city came to a standstill. Even into the 1930s my father was driving a milk truck pulled by horses through the city of Boston to make deliveries at 4AM and the city kept horse drawn fire engines in reserve until 1938.
The changes that technology made to NYC and Boston made it more livable, cleaner, less smelly and more healthy. Will the upcoming changes do the same thing?
One thing is certain -- there will be alot more people in 2035. The UN's best estimate is 8.5 billion versus 7 now. Perhaps electronics will make that more people more tolerable. Many people spend their time today in cubicles, not moving far. Perhaps that trend will continue, with people locked to their TV/Computers so they would need less room.
So with these changes, the good and the bad, what else can we expect as a result?
- less pressure on the forests as the demand for paper pulp declines
- extinction of the library as a repository of information
- increasing pressure and hostility of the elements and minerals needed for our electronics
- large increases in the price of gasoline as the population grows and supplies shrink
Even by 2035 the very vast majority of vehicles will be gasoline powered. But on the other hand, it may also be that the price of fuel drives mass transit, bicycle use and smaller vehicles
Also expected are much, much hotter summers down south. Willis Carrier made the south possible with his invention of air conditioning but perhaps it will become just too much and there will be a migration back north where it is cooler. Perhaps Canada will become a more desirable place to live as it will still maintain the temperatures most Americans remember, making life more pleasant and more comfortable for more of the year.
It's likely that if it gets too much hotter, perhaps even Las Vegas will change. If there is no water -- then there is no Las Vegas. Look at Lake Meade...already down many, many feet, it may reach the stage where it can no longer produce electricity. People WILL migrate to where there is water.
As for fish -- well, I don't think the fish are going to last too much longer. All over the world countries are fishing the oceans to extinction as fast as they can, it's a race to the bottom to see who gets there first.
In 2035 some people will live in a world of high technology and wonder. But many, many others will be living in a world of want, immobility and darkness.
